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Published: 9 September 2026,08:29
Daily Market Analysis New
*USD remains soft overall, with DXY around 98.7–98.9, but rising oil prices and stronger Fed-hike expectations are creating a potential downside floor.
*Yen strength is weighing on the dollar, as markets increasingly expect a September BoJ hike and potentially another move later this year.
*Oil near $100 is the key macro catalyst, with Middle East tensions increasing supply risks and pushing inflation expectations higher.
The US dollar and gold are being pulled in opposite directions by the same macro forces, with both markets caught between renewed geopolitical risk and a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook. The Dollar Index remains soft around the 98.7–98.9 area and near a two-week low, while gold is holding around the $4,370–$4,400 region. Dollar weakness has been particularly evident against the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY falling toward 153 as markets increasingly price a September BoJ hike and potentially another rate increase later this year. The yen has strengthened around 4% this month, supported by stronger Japanese data, hawkish BoJ expectations, possible institutional repatriation and the unwinding of crowded short-yen positions. At the same time, China’s August foreign-exchange reserves increased more than expected to $3.438 trillion, while the yuan strengthened during the month, suggesting that broader dollar momentum remains subdued. For gold, the softer dollar and renewed geopolitical uncertainty continue to provide support, although the rally remains constrained by rising yields and expectations for tighter US monetary policy.
The biggest cross-market catalyst is the renewed Middle East escalation and its impact on oil prices. Brent crude has moved toward $100 a barrel, while WTI has risen toward $94, following further US-Iran tensions, attacks involving Iranian oil tankers, Iranian strikes and Houthi attacks on Saudi targets. The resulting threat to energy supplies is rebuilding the geopolitical risk premium in crude and raising concerns that higher oil prices could feed into broader inflation. This creates a complicated environment for both the dollar and gold: geopolitical risk is generally supportive of safe-haven assets, but an oil-driven inflation shock could force the Fed to maintain a tighter policy stance. Strong US payrolls last week had already increased expectations for a September rate increase, with markets now pricing roughly a 60% probability of a 25bp hike. Consequently, higher Treasury yields are providing a fundamental floor for the dollar while simultaneously increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
The US inflation data will therefore be critical in determining the next move in both assets. US PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday will provide the clearest indication of whether the oil shock is beginning to translate into broader price pressures, ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. A hotter-than-expected PPI or CPI would reinforce expectations for a Fed hike, potentially push Treasury yields higher and support a recovery in the dollar toward the 99.20–99.50 resistance region, while creating further downside pressure on gold below the $4,350 area. Conversely, softer inflation would weaken the case for additional tightening, potentially pushing yields lower and allowing the dollar to remain below 99. In that scenario, a weaker greenback combined with persistent geopolitical uncertainty could provide renewed upside momentum for gold toward $4,400 and potentially the $4,450–$4,530 resistance region.
Beyond the immediate Fed and geopolitical drivers, gold continues to benefit from strong structural demand, which could limit deeper corrections even if yields rise in the near term. China’s central bank increased its gold reserves by roughly 650,000 ounces in August, extending its buying streak to 22 consecutive months and marking its largest monthly increase since October 2023. More broadly, central banks added around 23 tonnes of gold in July, led by China and Poland, highlighting continued reserve diversification and demand for gold as a geopolitical and monetary hedge. Overall, the US dollar remains weak-to-mixed, with persistent selling pressure offset by higher oil prices, Treasury yields and rising Fed-hike expectations, while gold is short-term neutral-to-bearish but structurally bullish.
GOLD, H4:
Gold remains in a short-term corrective phase after failing to sustain its move above the 4,645.00resistance. Price is currently trading around 4,390.00, with the recent rebound from the 4,310 area losing momentum. The broader structure remains constructive following the strong rally from the 3,975–3935 support zone, but price is now consolidating between key support and resistance levels.
Momentum indicators are showing a mixed-to-bearish short-term picture. The RSI is around 46, slightly above its moving average but still below the neutral 50 level. This indicates that buying pressure has recovered somewhat from the recent weakness, but bulls have not yet regained clear momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains bearish, with the MACD line below the signal line, while the histogram is negative. This confirms that downside momentum is still present, although the MACD lines are relatively close together and suggest that momentum could stabilize if buyers defend the current support area.Overall, the near-term outlook remains cautiously bullish above 4,375, but momentum is still weak.
Resistance Levels: 4450.00, 4520.00
Support Levels: 4375.00, 4310.00
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