U.S. Jobs, Inflation & Fed Policy in Focus

The Week Ahead: Week of August 31, 2026 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
The upcoming week begins with markets digesting a busy Jackson Hole period, where renewed debate over the U.S. inflation outlook and monetary policy has kept expectations for the Fed’s next move highly sensitive. Recent Fed commentary has highlighted that inflation remains sticky, while markets continue to reassess the balance between inflation risks and a cooling labor market.

Trade policy will remain another important market driver. The Trump administration continues to pursue an aggressive tariff strategy, while tensions with Canada have intensified after Washington imposed higher tariffs and Ottawa announced retaliatory measures. The latest developments reinforce concerns that trade restrictions could raise input costs and complicate the global growth and inflation outlook.

Geopolitical risks also remain elevated as the U.S.–Iran conflict and the future of the Strait of Hormuz continue to influence oil and broader risk sentiment. Any progress toward reopening shipping routes could ease crude prices, while renewed military escalation could quickly revive supply concerns and support safe-haven demand.

Against this backdrop, the week’s focus will shift toward U.S. manufacturing activity, labor-market indicators and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, with the employment report potentially becoming the most important catalyst for expectations around the Fed’s September policy decision.

Key Events to Watch

Monday, August 31 – 04:30

China Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

Previous: 49.2 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

China’s manufacturing PMI will provide an early indication of whether industrial activity is improving after recent signs of uneven domestic demand. A stronger reading above 50 could support expectations for stabilizing Chinese growth and improve sentiment toward commodities and risk-sensitive currencies. A weaker reading could revive concerns over China’s growth momentum and weigh on AUD, NZD and industrial commodities.

Monday, August 31 – 15:00

German CPI (MoM) (Aug) – Preliminary

Previous: 0.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Germany’s preliminary inflation data will offer an early signal for broader Eurozone price pressures. A stronger-than-expected reading could push European yields higher and reduce expectations for ECB easing, potentially supporting the euro. Softer inflation would reinforce the disinflation narrative and could weigh on EUR.

Monday, August 31 – 16:45

U.S. Chicago PMI (Aug)

Previous: 57.6 | Forecast: 57.8 | Actual: N/A

Chicago PMI will provide an early snapshot of U.S. manufacturing conditions ahead of the broader ISM surveys. Continued expansion would reinforce the view that economic activity remains resilient, potentially supporting the dollar and Treasury yields. A sharp deterioration could strengthen concerns over slowing growth and increase expectations for monetary easing.

Tuesday, September 1 – 12:00

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Aug) – Preliminary

Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Eurozone inflation will remain important for expectations surrounding ECB policy. A renewed acceleration in consumer prices could reduce expectations for further easing and support EUR, while softer inflation would strengthen the case for a more accommodative ECB stance.

Tuesday, September 1 – 16:45

U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

Previous: 53.2 | Forecast: 53.2 | Actual: N/A

The final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will provide an early look at U.S. industrial momentum. A reading above expectations would reinforce economic resilience and could support the dollar. A weaker reading may increase concerns over the impact of tariffs and higher input costs on manufacturing activity.

Tuesday, September 1 – 17:00

U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

Previous: 55.6 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

ISM Manufacturing will be closely watched for signs of continued expansion in the U.S. industrial sector. A strong reading would support the view that economic activity remains solid, potentially keeping Fed easing expectations contained. A downside surprise could reinforce concerns about slowing growth and weigh on the dollar.

Tuesday, September 1 – 17:00

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices (Aug)

Previous: 71.1 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The prices-paid component will be particularly important given the renewed focus on tariff-driven inflation. A further rise would suggest stronger input-cost pressures and could complicate the Fed’s inflation outlook, potentially supporting Treasury yields and the dollar. A decline would provide some relief on inflation risks.

Tuesday, September 1 – 17:00

U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Jul)

Previous: 7.359M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

JOLTS will provide an additional gauge of labor-market demand ahead of Friday’s employment report. A resilient level of vacancies would suggest that labor demand remains relatively firm, while a sharp decline could reinforce expectations of further labor-market cooling and increase pressure on the Fed to ease policy.

Wednesday, September 2 – 05:00

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Sep)

Previous: 2.50% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The RBNZ decision will be closely watched for guidance on the future path of monetary policy. A more hawkish stance could support NZD, particularly if policymakers emphasize persistent inflation risks. A dovish signal or greater confidence in further easing could weigh on the New Zealand dollar.

Wednesday, September 2 – 15:15

U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Aug)

Previous: 44K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

ADP employment data will provide an early indication of private-sector hiring ahead of Friday’s NFP report. A stronger reading could reinforce expectations for a resilient labor market and reduce near-term rate-cut expectations, while another weak reading would strengthen concerns over employment deterioration.

Wednesday, September 2 – 16:45

BoC Interest Rate Decision (Sep)

Previous: 2.25% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Bank of Canada’s decision will be particularly relevant for CAD given the renewed U.S.–Canada trade tensions. Policymakers will need to balance domestic inflation and growth conditions against the potential economic impact of higher U.S. tariffs. A cautious or hawkish tone could support CAD, while concerns over trade-related growth risks could weigh on the currency.

Wednesday, September 2 – 17:30

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Previous: 0.095M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Oil inventories will remain sensitive to both supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. A larger-than-expected inventory build could pressure crude prices, while a drawdown could reinforce upside momentum, particularly if geopolitical supply risks intensify. Recent oil prices have remained highly sensitive to developments surrounding the U.S.–Iran conflict.

Thursday, September 3 – 15:30

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Weekly jobless claims will provide a timely update on labor-market conditions ahead of Friday’s NFP. A sustained rise in claims could signal accelerating labor-market weakness and strengthen expectations for Fed easing, while stable claims would suggest that employment conditions remain relatively resilient.

Thursday, September 3 – 16:45

U.S. S&P Global Services PMI (Aug)

Previous: 56.8 | Forecast: 56.8 | Actual: N/A

Services activity will help determine whether strength in the U.S. economy is broadening beyond manufacturing. A stronger reading would support the soft-landing narrative and potentially keep the dollar supported. A weaker result could increase concerns over slowing domestic demand.

Thursday, September 3 – 17:00

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Aug)

Previous: 70.3 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The prices component will be closely monitored for evidence of persistent service-sector inflation. Elevated price pressures could make the Fed more cautious about easing, while a meaningful decline would provide greater room for rate cuts.

Thursday, September 3 – 17:00

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Aug)

Previous: 54.1 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

ISM Services will offer another important reading on U.S. economic momentum. Continued expansion would support risk sentiment and the dollar, while a significant slowdown could strengthen expectations that monetary policy needs to become more accommodative.

Friday, September 4 – 15:30

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Aug)

Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Wage growth will be important for assessing underlying inflation pressure. A stronger-than-expected increase could keep inflation concerns elevated and reduce expectations for aggressive Fed easing. Softer wage growth would support the view that labor-market and inflation pressures are gradually cooling.

Friday, September 4 – 15:30

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug)

Previous: -23K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

NFP will be the key U.S. event of the week and could significantly influence expectations for the Fed’s September policy decision. After the previous month’s negative payroll print, another weak report would raise concerns about a deteriorating labor market and could trigger a dovish repricing in Treasury yields and the dollar. A stronger rebound, however, would reduce expectations for near-term easing and potentially support the dollar while weighing on gold.

Friday, September 4 – 15:30

U.S. Unemployment Rate (Aug)

Previous: 4.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The unemployment rate will complement the payrolls report and provide a broader assessment of labor-market health. A rise in unemployment would strengthen expectations for Fed easing, while a stable or lower rate would suggest that labor conditions remain more resilient than the previous payroll figure indicated.