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Published: 25 August 2026,06:51
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*USD recovery remains limited as hovering near 99 as safe-haven demand is offset by expectations for easier Fed policy.
*Gold remains fundamentally strong near $4,647 continues to benefit from lower Treasury yields, monetary-policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
*Lower long-term yields support gold and limit dollar upside, while elevated yields keep both markets sensitive to inflation and Fed signals.
The U.S. dollar is showing only a modest recovery after hitting multi-month lows last week, with the DXY hovering around 99 as markets balance renewed geopolitical and trade risks against expectations for easier U.S. monetary policy. The greenback initially benefited from safe-haven demand after Washington intensified economic pressure on Iran and expanded secondary sanctions, while the collapse in U.S.-Canada trade negotiations also supported the dollar against the Canadian dollar. However, the broader recovery remains limited as investors continue to assess whether the latest geopolitical developments will materially change the Fed outlook. At the same time, gold has continued to trade near record-high territory, with spot prices recently reaching around $4,647 per ounce, supported by lower long-term Treasury yields, expectations for easier monetary policy and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Treasury yields remain a major driver for both assets. The 10-year yield has eased toward 4.7%, while the 30-year yield remains above 5.2%, after the Treasury expanded its long-term bond buyback programme and reportedly considered using cash reserves for additional purchases. Lower long-term yields have helped support gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, while also limiting the dollar’s recovery. However, yields remain elevated because of concerns over inflation, government borrowing and the U.S. fiscal outlook. The 2-year yield, which is more closely linked to Fed expectations, remains particularly important for the dollar and gold as markets reassess the timing of potential policy easing.
Geopolitical risks are supporting gold while simultaneously creating some safe-haven demand for the dollar. Washington has intensified its economic campaign against Iran, sanctioning roughly 60 entities, individuals and vessels connected to Iran’s oil and revenue networks, while uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains elevated following reports of a tanker being struck near Oman. If tensions escalate further, gold could attract stronger safe-haven demand, although the dollar could also benefit from a broader risk-off move. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting U.S. PCE inflation, household income and spending, consumer confidence, Q2 GDP revisions and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. A softer inflation reading or dovish Fed guidance could push yields and the dollar lower while supporting gold, whereas stronger data or a hawkish Warsh could lift yields and trigger profit-taking in gold. Overall, the dollar remains caught between safe-haven demand and expectations for easier Fed policy, while gold retains a stronger fundamental bias as lower yields, monetary-policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue to support demand.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold remains strongly bullish extending its recent breakout and pushing to fresh highs around $4,675. Price has decisively broken above the $4,545 resistance and the previous consolidation zone, confirming a strong bullish continuation. The next key upside area is around $4,700, while a sustained break above this level could open the way toward $4,750–$4,800.
Momentum remains supportive, with RSI at 75, indicating strong buying pressure but also an increasingly overbought market. Meanwhile, MACD remains bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and both rising, although the histogram has started to moderate slightly. This suggests the broader upside momentum remains intact, but short-term profit-taking or a pullback cannot be ruled out after the sharp rally.
On the downside, $4,545 is the immediate support and now an important breakout level. Holding above this zone would keep the bullish structure intact, while a deeper retracement could target $4,435, which should act as the next major support. Overall, the bias remains bullish above $4,545, with traders watching whether gold can establish a sustained break above $4,700 or first undergo a consolidation or pullback.
Resistance Levels: 4,700.00, 4,900.00
Support Levels: 4,545.00, 4,435.00
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