Core PCE, U.S. GDP & Fed Signals in Focus

The Week Ahead: Week of August 24, 2026 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
The upcoming week will place the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve policy outlook firmly in focus, with Core PCE inflation, U.S. GDP, durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and jobless claims providing fresh signals on inflation and economic momentum.

The inflation backdrop remains particularly important as geopolitical tensions continue to keep energy prices elevated. The ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil higher, raising concerns that a prolonged energy shock could keep inflation elevated and complicate the Fed’s policy outlook. Brent recently moved back above $90 per barrel as tensions intensified.

At the same time, U.S. Treasury markets remain under pressure, with long-term yields elevated amid concerns over inflation, fiscal supply, and geopolitical risk. The Treasury’s recent decision to increase bond buybacks has provided some relief, but market attention remains firmly focused on the sustainability of U.S. borrowing costs.

The week also comes as global investors focus on Jackson Hole, where central bankers are expected to provide further clues on the direction of monetary policy. With inflation still above target and geopolitical energy risks complicating the outlook, markets will be particularly sensitive to any shift in the Fed’s policy guidance.

Against this backdrop, stronger-than-expected U.S. data could reinforce higher-for-longer expectations, supporting the dollar and Treasury yields while potentially weighing on equities and gold. Softer data could strengthen expectations for easier policy and support risk assets, although renewed oil or geopolitical shocks could offset that effect.

Key Events to Watch

Tuesday, August 25 – 09:00

German GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

Previous: 0.4% | Forecast: 0.2% | Actual: N/A

Germany’s second-quarter growth reading will provide an important assessment of economic momentum in the Eurozone’s largest economy. A stronger-than-expected result could ease concerns over European stagnation and support the euro, while a weaker reading could reinforce expectations for a prolonged period of subdued growth and weigh on EUR.

Tuesday, August 25 – 17:00

U.S. CB Consumer Confidence (Aug)

Previous: 90.8 | Forecast: 91.2 | Actual: N/A

Consumer confidence will provide an updated view of household sentiment heading into the second half of the year. A stronger reading would suggest consumers remain resilient despite elevated prices and financial conditions, supporting U.S. growth expectations and potentially the dollar. A deterioration in confidence could raise concerns about weaker consumption and increase pressure on equities.

Tuesday, August 25 – 17:00

U.S. New Home Sales (Jul)

Previous: 628K | Forecast: 620K | Actual: N/A

New home sales will offer another indication of how higher borrowing costs are affecting the housing market. A stronger reading could signal resilient housing demand despite elevated mortgage rates, while a weaker result could reinforce concerns that restrictive financial conditions are weighing on interest-sensitive sectors.

Wednesday, August 26 – 15:30

U.S. Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

Previous: 3.3% | Forecast: 3.3% | Actual: N/A

The annual core PCE reading will be one of the week’s most important inflation indicators and remains closely watched because of its importance to the Federal Reserve. A reading above expectations could reinforce concerns that inflation remains sticky and reduce expectations for near-term policy easing. A softer result would strengthen the disinflation narrative and potentially support equities and bonds.

Wednesday, August 26 – 15:30

U.S. Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)

Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.2% | Actual: N/A

The monthly core PCE reading will provide a more timely measure of underlying inflation momentum. An acceleration toward or above expectations could signal renewed price pressure, particularly if higher energy and tariff-related costs begin feeding into broader prices. A softer outcome would support expectations that inflation is gradually moving lower.

Wednesday, August 26 – 15:30

U.S. GDP (QoQ) (Q2) – Preliminary

Previous: 2.1% | Forecast: 1.5% | Actual: N/A

The preliminary second-quarter GDP reading will offer a broader assessment of U.S. economic momentum. A stronger result would reinforce the view that the economy remains resilient and could reduce pressure for monetary easing. A downside surprise could increase concerns over slowing growth and support expectations for a more accommodative Fed.

Wednesday, August 26 – 15:30

U.S. Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jul)

Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: 0.7% | Actual: N/A

Durable goods orders will provide insight into business investment and demand for manufactured products. A stronger reading would suggest continued corporate spending and economic resilience, while a weaker result could indicate that higher financing costs and uncertainty are weighing on investment activity.

Wednesday, August 26 – 17:30

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Previous: 4.405M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Oil inventories will be closely watched against the backdrop of elevated geopolitical risk and ongoing concerns surrounding Middle East supply disruptions. A large inventory draw could add further support to crude prices, particularly if geopolitical tensions remain elevated. A significant build could ease near-term supply concerns and put downward pressure on oil.

With oil prices already elevated because of the U.S.–Iran conflict and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, inventory data could have an amplified impact on inflation expectations and energy-sensitive assets.

Thursday, August 27 – 15:30

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: 206K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Weekly jobless claims will provide a high-frequency update on labor-market conditions. A continued rise in claims could indicate that labor demand is weakening and strengthen expectations for a more accommodative Fed. Stable or lower claims would support the view that employment conditions remain relatively resilient.

Macro Theme to Watch: Jackson Hole & Fed Expectations

Beyond the scheduled economic releases, markets will remain highly sensitive to signals from the Jackson Hole symposium. Investors are assessing how policymakers balance persistent inflation against signs of economic cooling, particularly as elevated oil prices create another potential source of inflation pressure.

The interaction between Core PCE, GDP, labor-market data, oil prices, and Fed communication will be especially important. A combination of sticky inflation and resilient growth could push yields and the dollar higher, while weaker growth alongside softer inflation would strengthen the case for eventual policy easing.

Geopolitical developments remain a major wildcard. The latest escalation between the U.S. and Iran has pushed oil prices higher and contributed to renewed pressure in global bond markets, meaning markets could quickly shift back toward defensive positioning if tensions worsen.

Overall, next week is likely to be driven by the inflation-growth-policy triangle, with Core PCE and GDP providing the key economic signals while oil and geopolitical developments determine how aggressively markets price the Fed’s next moves.