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Published: 29 July 2026,06:46
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*Gold moves lower as investors prepare for the upcoming Fed interest-rate decision
*Firm dollar and lingering rate-hike risks weigh on non-yielding bullion
*US GDP and Core PCE data remain key catalysts for gold and dollar direction
Gold prices moved lower as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest-rate decision. A firm US dollar and lingering rate-hike risks continued to weigh on the precious metal, as markets remained cautious over the path of US monetary policy.
Higher energy costs and continued Middle East uncertainty have complicated the inflation outlook, strengthening expectations that US interest rates may remain elevated for longer. This has reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold, especially as traders remain alert to the possibility of further Fed tightening.
At the same time, the Dollar Index remained firm near a one-month high as market participants maintained expectations that the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy in the coming months. According to current market pricing, traders see around a 34% probability of a Fed rate hike at this meeting and approximately a 75% chance of a move in September.
However, lower oil prices have eased some concerns over energy-driven inflation and placed downward pressure on US Treasury yields. This may limit further dollar gains ahead of the Fed’s policy statement and guidance on future interest-rate decisions.
Despite the pressure, gold continues to attract buying interest near the psychological support level of $4,000. This suggests that some investors are still using gold as a defensive asset, particularly as Middle East risks remain unresolved and market uncertainty stays elevated.
Moving forward, investors will closely monitor the Fed’s policy guidance, US second-quarter GDP, and Core PCE inflation data for clearer direction. A hawkish Fed message or stronger inflation data could support the dollar and pressure gold lower, while softer policy signals may help bullion recover from key support.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are trading lower, currently testing the 4,015.00 support level, which acts as a key near-term downside pivot.
Market attention remains focused on a potential breakdown below 4,015.00. A confirmed break could extend losses toward the next support level at 3,965.00, reinforcing the bearish structure.
However, momentum indicators suggest that selling pressure may be easing. The MACD is showing increasing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 46 is rebounding sharply from oversold territory, indicating the possibility of a short-term technical rebound.
If bearish momentum fails to persist, gold may recover and retest the 4,110.00 resistance level, followed by 4,160.00 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 4110.00, 4160.00
Support Levels: 4015.00, 3965.00
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