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Published: 16 July 2026,07:49
Daily Market Analysis New
*US Dollar Index extends losses after a series of weaker-than-expected U.S. data
*Producer Price Index records its sharpest decline in 14 months
*Softer CPI, PPI, and jobs data reduce expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike
*Renewed U.S.–Iran tensions keep broader market uncertainty elevated
The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, continued to extend its losses after a series of downbeat U.S. economic data reinforced expectations that inflation pressures are easing.
The latest U.S. Producer Price Index unexpectedly fell sharply in June, recording its biggest decline in 14 months. The report also showed a significant downward revision to May’s PPI reading, adding further evidence that inflationary pressure in the U.S. was easing even before the latest escalation in the Middle East.
The softer PPI data followed Tuesday’s larger-than-expected decline in the monthly Consumer Price Index, while June’s slower job growth also pointed to cooling economic momentum. Together, the data reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at this month’s meeting.
As Fed hike expectations eased, U.S. Treasury yields came under pressure, weighing further on the dollar. A weaker inflation outlook reduces the need for additional monetary tightening, making the greenback less attractive compared with periods of higher yield support.
However, the latest economic data has been partly overshadowed by renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran following last week’s collapse of a fragile ceasefire. The return of geopolitical tensions has increased uncertainty across global markets, especially as investors assess the potential impact on oil prices, inflation expectations, and broader risk sentiment.
Overall, the dollar remains under pressure from softer U.S. data and weaker Fed hike expectations, but renewed Middle East tensions could limit downside if safe-haven demand returns or energy prices rebound sharply.
Technical Analysis
Dollar Index, H4:
The dollar index is trading lower after breaking below both the ascending trendline and the 100.65 support level, signaling a bearish shift in short-term structure.
Momentum indicators remain tilted to the downside, with the MACD showing increasing bearish momentum and the RSI at 39 staying below the midline, suggesting that selling pressure may persist.
If bearish momentum continues, the index could extend losses toward the next support at 100.10, followed by 99.50 if downside pressure accelerates.
However, if bearish momentum begins to fade, the index may stage a technical rebound and retest the 100.65 resistance level, followed by 101.35 if recovery strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 100.65, 101.35
Support Levels: 100.10, 99.50
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