24/7 SUPPORT
Download App
Published: 10 July 2026,07:18
Daily Market Analysis New
*USD stays elevated by geopolitical tension, resilient US labour market data, and expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer.
*Gold stays elevated on safe-haven demand, although gains are capped by expectations of higher US interest rates and a relatively firm dollar.
*Oil prices retreated from recent highs after optimism surrounding potential negotiations with Iran and the US avoiding direct strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure eased immediate supply disruption fears.
The US dollar traded near the 101 level while gold remained elevated around $4,120–$4,135 per ounce, as investors continued balancing safe-haven demand against shifting expectations for US monetary policy. Markets remained focused on escalating geopolitical tensions after the United States launched a second consecutive wave of military strikes targeting approximately 90 Iranian military and coastal sites in response to attacks on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against US-related military facilities across the Gulf, while President Donald Trump declared the interim peace agreement was effectively “over,” reinforcing concerns over prolonged regional instability and initially boosting demand for both traditional safe-haven assets.
However, both assets saw their moves moderated after crude oil prices retreated from recent highs. Investors took comfort from comments suggesting Iran remained open to negotiations and from the US decision to avoid directly targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, easing immediate concerns over a major disruption to global oil supplies. The decline in oil prices reduced inflation fears, weighing modestly on the US dollar as safe-haven demand eased, while simultaneously limiting gold’s upside despite weaker Treasury yields providing some support.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes highlighted an increasingly divided policy outlook. Although a few policymakers argued for an immediate rate hike, most preferred to leave interest rates unchanged while monitoring incoming inflation data. Markets continue to price a 60–65% probability of a September rate hike, as elevated energy prices, tariffs and AI-driven demand remain potential upside risks to inflation. Supporting the dollar, US initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to 215,000, signalling continued labour market resilience despite existing home sales unexpectedly falling to an annualised pace of 4.09 million. New York Fed President John Williams also reiterated that inflation remains “far too high,” although he expects energy prices to moderate later this year.
Looking ahead, both the US dollar and gold are expected to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East and next week’s US CPI and PPI inflation reports. While any renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz could initially strengthen both assets through increased safe-haven demand, a sustained rise in oil prices may also reinforce expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, ultimately supporting the US dollar while capping gold’s upside due to higher interest rates and Treasury yields.
Technical Analysis
Dollar Index, H4:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has turned weaker after failing to hold above the 101.10 resistance level. Price has broken below the short-term consolidation range and is now testing its rising trendline near 100.65, suggesting bullish momentum is fading. While the broader uptrend remains valid as long as the ascending trendline holds, a decisive break below this level could trigger a deeper correction toward the next support zone.
Momentum indicators reinforce the weakening outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 36, falling below its moving average and approaching oversold territory, indicating that selling pressure is strengthening. Meanwhile, the MACD remains below the zero line after a bearish crossover, with the histogram continuing to print negative bars, suggesting downside momentum remains dominant despite showing signs of gradually stabilizing. Overall, the short-term outlook has shifted to cautiously bearish as DXY tests key trendline support with weakening momentum.
Resistance Levels: 101.10, 101.85
Support Levels: 100.10, 99.50
Trade forex, indices, metal, and more at industry-low spreads and lightning-fast execution.
Sign up for a PU Prime Live Account with our hassle-free process.
Effortlessly fund your account with a wide range of channels and accepted currencies.
Access hundreds of instruments under market-leading trading conditions.
Trading Platforms
Learn
About PU Prime
Corporate
Important Notice: Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely on your own initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on a reverse solicitation basis in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Please note the Website is intended for individuals residing in jurisdictions where accessing the Website is permitted by law.
Please note that PU Prime and its affiliated entities are neither established nor operating in your home jurisdiction.
By clicking the "Acknowledge" button, you confirm that you are entering this website solely based on your initiative and not as a result of any specific marketing outreach. You wish to obtain information from this website which is provided on reverse solicitation in accordance with the laws of your home jurisdiction.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
Ten en cuenta que el sitio web está destinado a personas que residen en jurisdicciones donde el acceso al sitio web está permitido por la ley.
Ten en cuenta que PU Prime y sus entidades afiliadas no están establecidas ni operan en tu jurisdicción de origen.
Al hacer clic en el botón "Aceptar", confirmas que estás ingresando a este sitio web por tu propia iniciativa y no como resultado de ningún esfuerzo de marketing específico. Deseas obtener información de este sitio web que se proporciona mediante solicitud inversa de acuerdo con las leyes de tu jurisdicción de origen.
Thank You for Your Acknowledgement!
