Published: 2 December 2025,06:14
Daily Market Analysis New
*The dollar index remains under pressure as rate-cut expectations continue to weigh.
*US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices miss forecasts, signaling ongoing industrial weakness.
*Market eyes potential new Fed chair and upcoming economic data, including ADP employment and PCE inflation.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, continued to drift lower as market participants absorbed a string of underwhelming data and persistent speculation over Federal Reserve easing. ISM Manufacturing data added to the bearish sentiment, with the PMI declining to 48.2 in November from 48.7 previously, missing expectations of 49.0. ISM Manufacturing Prices also came in softer than forecast at 58.5 versus the 59.5 estimate, highlighting ongoing cost pressures and slower factory activity amid import tariff drag.
Beyond data, speculation over a potential new Fed chair has added to market uncertainty. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett signaled willingness to serve if appointed, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested a new chair could be named before Christmas. Investors are weighing the possibility that leadership changes could tilt the FOMC toward more dovish policy, reinforcing expectations of further rate cuts.
Attention now turns to key upcoming releases, including November ADP employment figures on Wednesday and the delayed September PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, on Friday. These releases could provide a clearer picture of the U.S. economic trajectory and influence near-term dollar movements.
Meanwhile, gold prices have rallied to a six-week high, buoyed by a softer dollar and expectations of Fed easing. The greenback’s retreat has made the metal more attractive for holders of other currencies, supporting safe-haven demand as markets remain cautious amid lingering economic uncertainties.
Technical Analysis
DXY, H4:
The dollar index is trading higher on a technical rebound, currently testing resistance at 99.45. While short-term momentum has turned positive, the broader long-term trend for the greenback remains tilted bearish. A decisive breakout above 99.45 could signal a potential reversal and pave the way toward the next resistance at 100.25.
Momentum indicators show mixed signals. MACD illustrates increasing bullish momentum, while RSI at 45 has rebounded from oversold territory, suggesting that the dollar may extend its gains in the near term. However, failure to break above resistance could trigger a retracement toward 99.00, maintaining the overall bearish structure.
Resistance Levels: 99.45, 100.25
Support Levels: 99.45,99.00
GOLD, H4:
Gold is trading higher and currently testing resistance at 4235.00. Despite supportive fundamentals, technical indicators suggest early signs of exhaustion. MACD shows diminishing bullish momentum with bearish divergence, while RSI at 57 has retreated from overbought levels, highlighting the potential for short-term profit-taking or a pullback.
If a retracement occurs, the upward trendline will serve as the first technical reference, followed by support near 4035.00. A sustained move above 4235.00 could open the way for further gains toward 4280.00 and 4370.00, while a failure to break resistance may reinforce consolidation around current levels.
Resistance Levels: 4280.00, 4370.00
Support Levels: 4220.00, 4040.00
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