Early December Opens With a Crucial Test for the U.S. Economy

The Week Ahead: Week of 1st December 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
Markets enter the first week of December with a heavy concentration of U.S. macro data that will help define the final stretch of Q4 sentiment. A series of PMI releases, labor-market updates, inflation figures, and Powell’s scheduled remarks arrive at a time when markets are finely balanced between soft-landing optimism and concerns about weakening demand and slowing hiring.

Manufacturing and services PMIs provide the first look at November activity, revealing whether recent softness in industrial output and new orders is stabilizing. Labor-market indicators including JOLTS openings, ADP employment, and Initial Jobless Claims offer a crucial read on hiring momentum ahead of nonfarm payrolls. Mid-week U.S. CPI (flash) and later-week Core PCE— the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge  will determine whether the disinflation trend remains intact into the final month of the year.

Energy markets may see volatility around Crude Oil Inventories, while risk sentiment will be sensitive to Powell’s communication as investors evaluate how quickly the Fed may ease policy in 2026. The backdrop of slower seasonal liquidity into December may amplify market moves, especially around USD, equities, and rates.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, December 1 – 09:45

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

Previous: 52.5 | Forecast: 51.9 | Actual: N/A

The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to show mixed signals, with PMI slipping from the previous month. Markets will watch whether activity remains in expansionary territory or softens further, as slower factory momentum could reinforce concerns of weakening Q4 output. A stronger print would ease fears of industrial slowdown and support risk assets.

Monday, December 1 – 10:00

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

Previous: 48.7 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

A critical gauge of U.S. manufacturing health. After months below the 50 threshold, investors will look for signs of stabilization. A rebound could lift USD and yields, while another weak reading may strengthen expectations for 2026 Fed cuts.

Monday, December 1 – 10:00

ISM Manufacturing Prices (Nov)

Previous: 58.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Price pressures within the manufacturing supply chain offer clues about early inflation momentum. A cooling in prices would support the disinflation narrative, while a renewed rise may worry markets about sticky inflation.

Monday, December 1 – 20:00

Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Powell’s remarks could influence expectations for the 2026 rate-cut path. Any hint of caution on inflation or confidence in labor-market tightness may lift USD and Treasury yields. A more dovish tone would support equities and risk currencies.

Tuesday, December 2 – 05:00

CPI (YoY) (Nov) – Eurozone

Previous: 2.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

A key inflation reading for the euro area. Softer numbers would reinforce expectations that ECB easing in 2026 may come sooner, weighing on EUR. A hotter print may give EUR temporary support but is unlikely to shift the broader cooling-inflation trend.

Tuesday, December 2 – 10:00

JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)

Previous: 7.227M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

JOLTS remains a crucial labor-tightness indicator watched closely by the Fed. Another decline in job openings would signal cooling labor demand and support bets on future rate cuts. A surprise increase may revive concerns that wage pressures could remain sticky.

Wednesday, December 3 – 08:15

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Nov)

Previous: 42K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

ADP provides an early look at U.S. labor-market momentum ahead of NFP. Weak hiring would reinforce slowing-growth concerns, while a strong reading could lift USD by signaling labor resilience.

Wednesday, December 3 – 09:45

S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)

Previous: 54.8 | Forecast: 55.0 | Actual: N/A

Services continue to drive U.S. economic growth. A stable or improving PMI may signal continued consumer and business demand, supporting a soft-landing narrative.

Wednesday, December 3 – 10:00

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

Previous: 52.4 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

A major gauge of U.S. services activity. Stronger readings support the view that the economy remains resilient, potentially delaying Fed easing. Weak data may raise concerns about slowing domestic demand.

Wednesday, December 3 – 10:00

ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Nov)

Previous: 70.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Service-sector price pressures remain one of the Fed’s biggest concerns. A high reading would highlight sticky inflation and push yields higher. A softer print would support disinflation progress.

Wednesday, December 3 – 10:30

Crude Oil Inventories

Previous: 2.774M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Inventory swings often influence short-term oil price volatility. A large draw signals tightening supply or stronger demand, supporting crude and energy-linked currencies. A big build may pressure oil and reflect slowing consumption.

Thursday, December 4 – 08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: 216K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Weekly claims help gauge labor-market turning points. A rise could signal softening employment momentum and strengthen expectations for easing in 2026. Stable or lower claims may support USD by suggesting ongoing labor resilience.

Friday, December 5 – 10:00

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep)

Previous: 0.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, Core PCE is the week’s most influential release. Cooling inflation would reinforce expectations for rate cuts in 2026, weakening USD and lifting risk sentiment.

Friday, December 5 – 10:00

Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)

Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The YoY figure provides a clearer picture of the inflation trend. A sustained move lower strengthens the disinflation narrative. If inflation remains sticky, markets may push back expectations for early easing, boosting the dollar.