29 August 2025,07:21
Daily Market Analysis
29 August 2025, 07:21
Key Takeaways:
*S&P 500 hit a new record close, with the Dow and Nasdaq also finishing higher on growing confidence in a September Fed rate cut.
*10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.205%, aligning with the market’s 90%+ probability of a September cut.
*Nvidia’s weak revenue outlook and concerns over Fed independence after Governor Cook’s ouster kept caution in play, with traders eyeing today’s PCE inflation data for direction.
Market Summary:
U.S. stocks advanced on Wednesday, propelling the S&P 500 to a fresh all-time high as mounting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September bolstered risk appetite. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite also closed higher, though gains were tempered by weakness in large-cap technology shares and lingering political uncertainty.
Futures markets now reflect a 90–94% probability of a rate reduction at the September FOMC meeting, up from 84% last week. The shift in sentiment pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.205%, its lowest level in over a week, easing pressure on growth-sensitive equities.
The rally faced headwinds as Nvidia shares declined following a subdued revenue forecast that disappointed investors, highlighting ongoing volatility within the tech sector. Political concerns also resurfaced after former President Donald Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising questions about central bank independence and long-term policy stability.
Attention now turns to the release of the April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. A soft print could reinforce dovish policy expectations and extend the equity rally, while a stronger-than-anticipated reading may dampen hopes for aggressive easing and prompt a pullback.
The S&P 500 has extended its higher-high price pattern, with the latest breakout above the 6,490 resistance level driving the index to a fresh record high in yesterday’s session. This decisive move signals a full recovery from its previous downtrend, reinforcing a bullish bias for the index.
Momentum indicators also point to sustained strength. The RSI remains above the midpoint, highlighting persistent buying momentum, while the MACD is showing signs of a rebound above the zero line, suggesting that a fresh wave of bullish momentum may be forming. Together, these technical signals align with the upward trajectory observed in price action, supporting the view that the S&P 500 could extend its rally in the near term.
Resistance Levels: 6525.00, 6562.00
Support Levels: 6489.00, 6440.00
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