US,UK data and Government Shutdown Reopening to Shape November Sentiment

The Week Ahead: Week of 17th November 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
Markets enter the third week of November with attention on central bank signals, economic resilience, and U.S. fiscal developments after the reopening of the federal government. Following the end of the 43-day shutdown, which restored funding across agencies and reinstated furloughed employees, investors are reassessing U.S. economic momentum amid delayed data releases and potential backlogs. The FOMC Minutes will provide insight into policymakers’ comfort with moderating inflation and potential 2026 rate cuts. CPI reports from the U.K. and Eurozone will gauge Europe’s disinflation trend, while Japan’s GDP update offers an early view of Asia’s growth trajectory. U.S. housing and PMI data will further clarify domestic momentum under tighter financial conditions, now juxtaposed with restored government operations.

Key Events to Watch:

Japan GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Previous: 0.5% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Japan’s third-quarter GDP will reveal whether the economy maintained momentum amid yen weakness and export softness. A stronger outcome would support risk appetite and reinforce BoJ caution on policy normalization, while a contraction could reignite recession concerns and pressure the yen versus the USD and EUR.

Wednesday, November 19 – 09:00

U.K. CPI (YoY) (Oct)

Previous: 3.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

UK inflation remains central to BoE policy expectations. A hotter-than-expected reading could challenge market bets for mid-2026 easing and lift GBP, whereas softer data would reinforce disinflation trends and weigh on sterling amid growth concerns.

Wednesday, November 19 – 12:00

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Oct)

Previous: 2.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Eurozone inflation continues to moderate, driven by base effects and easing wage pressures. A downside surprise may strengthen expectations for early ECB rate cuts, weighing on the euro. Stickier prices, by contrast, would signal inflation persistence, providing temporary support to EUR/USD.

Wednesday, November 19 – 21:00

FOMC Meeting Minutes (Nov)

Markets will dissect the minutes for indications of policy divergence within the Fed. Dovish signals acknowledging slower activity and progress on inflation could boost risk sentiment and pressure the dollar, whereas a hawkish tone emphasizing vigilance on inflation risks would support U.S. yields and temper easing expectations.

Thursday, November 20 – 15:30

U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

Previous: -12.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Regional manufacturing data provide an early gauge of industrial momentum. Improvement toward positive territory would suggest tentative stabilization and lift sentiment for growth-sensitive assets, while continued weakness could heighten concerns over a prolonged industrial slowdown.

Thursday, November 20 – 17:00

U.S. Existing Home Sales (Oct)

Previous: 4.08M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Housing activity remains constrained by elevated mortgage rates. A rebound in sales would indicate consumer resilience and support equities, while further declines could reinforce expectations for slower Q4 growth and weigh on risk appetite.

Friday, November 21 – 16:45

U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

Previous: 52.5 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

A reading above 50 signals continued factory expansion. Sustained improvement could bolster the dollar and temper Fed rate-cut expectations, while a dip below 50 would point to growth fatigue, supporting the soft-landing narrative.

Friday, November 21 – 16:45

U.S. S&P Global Services PMI (Nov)

Previous: 54.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The services sector remains the primary driver of U.S. growth. A strong print would reflect resilient domestic demand, whereas weakness could heighten concerns over a broader slowdown, potentially prompting safe-haven flows into Treasuries and gold.

Optional Insight to Highlight Shutdown Impact:

The reopening of the U.S. government could provide a temporary boost to market confidence, reduce uncertainty, and restore delayed economic indicators. However, lingering backlogs and short-term funding resolutions may continue to create volatility in the near term, particularly for USD liquidity and risk-sensitive assets.