6 October 2025,03:26
Daily Market Analysis
6 October 2025, 03:26
*US equities climb as AI trade drives new record highs
*Government shutdown delays key economic data, including September jobs report
*Fed officials, including Chair Powell, set to provide policy guidance this week
Market Summary:
US stocks extended their rally,, with major indices advancing toward fresh record highs as investor enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) continued to dominate market sentiment. Renewed buzz around OpenAI (OPAI.PVT) sparked another wave of optimism, helping technology and growth-oriented sectors lead gains. The AI-driven momentum reflects investors’ confidence in productivity-enhancing technologies, which are increasingly seen as a key driver of corporate profitability and long-term market performance.
While markets cheered the AI trade, investors also kept one eye on Washington, where lawmakers once again failed to resolve the budget impasse, prolonging the ongoing US government shutdown. The stalemate has already resulted in a data blackout, with the September nonfarm payrolls report — initially scheduled for release Friday — now delayed. This lack of official economic data complicates the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process and heightens near-term policy uncertainty.
Nonetheless, the equity market has largely shrugged off shutdown-related concerns, focusing instead on the broader macro environment. Expectations for future rate cuts have continued to provide a solid underpinning for equities, with investors betting that the Fed will adopt a more dovish stance in response to slowing inflation and cooling economic momentum. A shift toward easier monetary conditions would improve liquidity and lower borrowing costs, both of which are supportive of equity valuations.
Looking ahead, US equities appear well-positioned in the near term, supported by AI-driven optimism and dovish monetary expectations. However, risks remain on the horizon. A prolonged shutdown could erode business and consumer confidence, while an extended data blackout may hinder accurate policy assessments. Moreover, stretched valuations in the technology sector raise questions about the sustainability of gains if earnings fail to keep pace with investor expectations.
Technical Analysis
NASDAQ, H4
The Nasdaq 100 extended gains after breaking above its previous record high at 23,660.00. If bullish momentum continues, the index could target 25,415.00, and eventually 27,645.00.
However, warning signs are emerging. The MACD is showing diminishing bullish momentum, while the RSI has retreated from overbought levels, signaling a possible bearish divergence. This suggests rising risks of a near-term pullback. Should the index fail to maintain its gains, a retracement toward 23,660.00 is likely, with 24,195.00 acting as an intermediate support.
Resistance levels: 25415.00, 27645.00
Support levels: 23660.00, 24195.00
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