Shutdown Shakes Markets: Data Delays Loom

The Week Ahead: Week of October 6, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

The second week of October offers a dense mix of central bank guidance, inflation cues, and labor data, all feeding into expectations for the Fed’s next moves. The week begins with forward-looking U.S. indicators providing early insight into growth momentum and labor market conditions.

Midweek, attention turns to New Zealand, where the RBNZ faces a delicate balancing act between persistent inflation and fragile growth. In the U.S., FOMC minutes and Powell’s remarks could clarify whether policymakers lean dovish into year-end or keep a cautious stance. Oil inventories and Treasury auctions will further test market resilience amid elevated yields and energy volatility.

The climax comes Friday with the U.S. labor market trifecta: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, and wages. After September’s disappointing hiring, the stakes are high for confirming whether labor weakness is accelerating or merely a blip. The data will drive market positioning across FX, bonds, and commodities.

Key Events to Watch:

Wednesday, October 8 – 04:00
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (Oct)
Previous: 3.00% | Forecast: 2.75% | Actual: N/A
The RBNZ is expected to raise rates modestly as inflation remains sticky. A hawkish tone could strengthen NZD by dampening rate-cut bets, while a dovish signal risks renewed selling pressure amid growth concerns.

Wednesday, October 8 – 17:30
US Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: +1.792M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Inventories data will test oil’s rally amid OPEC+ supply discipline and demand uncertainties. Another build could ease energy-driven inflation fears, while a drawdown may fuel upside momentum in crude and oil-linked currencies.

Wednesday, October 8 – 20:00
US 10-Year Note Auction
Previous: 4.033% | Actual: N/A
Treasury auctions remain a key gauge of investor appetite at elevated yields. Weak demand could push yields higher, tightening financial conditions further.

Wednesday, October 8 – 22:00
FOMC Meeting Minutes (Sep)
Markets will dissect the minutes for signs of division over inflation persistence versus growth risks. Any dovish tilt could reinforce easing bets, while hawkish language might cap risk appetite.

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Thursday, October 9 – 15:30
US Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 223K | Forecast: 218K | Actual: N/A
Claims remain stable but any surprise uptick would confirm labor market softening, likely pressuring the dollar and bolstering bonds. A steady print would highlight resilience, limiting Fed easing scope.

Thursday, October 9 – 15:30
Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Powell’s comments will be critical for clarifying the Fed’s stance. A dovish lean could accelerate expectations for cuts, while cautious or hawkish language may steady the dollar and yields.

Thursday, October 9 – 20:00
US 30-Year Bond Auction
Previous: 4.651% | Actual: N/A
Investor demand will be closely watched as long-end yields hover at multi-year highs. Weak take-up would underscore debt sustainability concerns.

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Friday, October 10 – 15:30
US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM, Sep)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: 0.3% | Actual: N/A
Wages remain a key inflation driver. A higher print could revive hawkish fears, while softer growth would support bonds and risk assets.

Friday, October 10 – 15:30
US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
Previous: 51K | Forecast: 22K | Actual: N/A
The marquee event of the week, NFP will determine whether labor softness deepens. A weak outcome would bolster easing bets, while a rebound could support the dollar and push yields higher.

Friday, October 10 – 15:30
US Unemployment Rate (Sep)
Previous: 4.3% | Forecast: 4.3% | Actual: N/A
The jobless rate has edged to multi-year highs. Another increase would stoke recession fears, while stability or a decline could temper dovish bets.