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3 May 2024,05:30
Weekly Outlook
3 May 2024, 05:30
During the March meeting, Australia’s central bank kept its interest rates steady at 4.35% and adopted a more relaxed approach towards tightening, suggesting growing confidence in inflation reaching its target despite economic deceleration. Following the release of March’s CPI data, hopes for an imminent rate cut have dwindled, with investors anticipating that the board is unlikely to make any changes to interest rates in the upcoming meeting.
During the last meeting, the Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 5.25%. Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the importance of ensuring that inflation returns to the 2% target and remains there, stating that the current situation does not warrant a rate cut. Financial markets anticipate that the first rate cut will likely occur in September, assigning minimal probability to a rate cut on May 9. Therefore, it is unlikely for the Bank of England to deliver any unexpected developments.
In February, the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) saw a monthly expansion of 0.1%, in line with expectations from a Reuters poll of economists. This suggests that Britain’s subdued economy is advancing towards emerging from a mild recession. With analysts expecting stability in the UK, as evidenced by recent data releases from the nation, a potential continuation of this trend is expected in upcoming data release.
In March, the U.S. job market experienced a significant upturn, with nonfarm payrolls surging to 303,000, surpassing the anticipated 200,000. This increase exceeded the adjusted rise of 270,000 observed in February, underscoring the robustness of the labor market. With U.S. job figures consistently outpacing consensus estimates for the past five months, there is an expectation within the market for this trend to persist.
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