RBA and BoE Decisions Anchor a Data-Heavy Start to November

The Week Ahead: Week of 3rd November 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
The opening week of November is set to test the resilience of global markets following a volatile October. Central banks in Australia and the U.K. take center stage, while a slew of top-tier U.S. data including the ISM PMIs, ADP jobs, and JOLTS openings will gauge whether the economy is cooling fast enough to justify the Federal Reserve’s dovish tilt.

In Australia, the RBA faces growing pressure to balance persistent inflation with faltering consumption. Meanwhile, the Bank of England must navigate a fragile growth backdrop as inflation gradually eases. Across the Atlantic, traders will watch for signs that the U.S. labor market remains tight, which could complicate the Fed’s path to eventual easing. With energy markets stabilizing and services inflation proving sticky, this week could provide the next major cue for positioning across FX, bonds, and commodities.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, November 3 – 18:45
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Previous: 52.0 | Forecast: 52.2 | Actual: N/A
Manufacturing sentiment is expected to hold steady, signaling gradual stabilization after months of mixed signals. A stronger print would suggest resilience in factory activity and support the dollar, while a softer reading could fuel concerns of a late-year slowdown and reinforce dovish Fed expectations.

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Monday, November 3 – 17:00
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Previous: 49.1 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The ISM gauge will offer a key read on the industrial sector’s health. A move above the 50 threshold would indicate expansion and temper easing bets, while continued contraction could highlight manufacturing headwinds and weigh on the greenback.

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Monday, November 3 – 17:00
US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Oct)
Previous: 81.9 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The prices component will reveal whether cost pressures remain elevated. Persistent strength could stoke fears of sticky inflation, lifting yields, while a softer figure would reinforce disinflation momentum and boost risk sentiment.

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Tuesday, November 4 – 05:30
RBA Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
Previous: 3.60% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates unchanged as it balances stubborn inflation against slowing consumption. A hawkish tone emphasizing inflation risks could support the Aussie, while a dovish bias focused on growth weakness would pressure AUD and reinforce market bets on an extended pause.

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Tuesday, November 4 – 17:00
US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)
Previous: 7.227M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Labor demand remains a critical gauge for the Fed’s policy path. A rebound in openings would suggest ongoing tightness, supporting USD and yields. Conversely, a decline would affirm cooling labor conditions and validate expectations for rate cuts in early 2026.

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Wednesday, November 5 – 15:15
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct)
Previous: -32K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Private-sector hiring data will offer early insight ahead of NFP. A sharp rebound would challenge the “cooling labor market” view, while another weak figure could boost equities and bonds as markets price in a more dovish Fed outlook.

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Wednesday, November 5 – 17:00
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Previous: 51.4 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The services PMI remains key for assessing overall economic momentum. A strong reading would signal resilient activity and delay rate-cut expectations, whereas softer data could reinforce the slowdown narrative and weigh on the dollar.

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Wednesday, November 5 – 17:30
US Crude Oil Inventories
Previous: -6.858M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly inventory data will influence short-term crude price direction. A larger drawdown would point to firm demand and support oil-linked currencies, while a surprise build may weigh on energy markets and signal slowing global consumption.

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Thursday, November 6 – 14:00
BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov)
Previous: 4.00% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Bank of England is likely to hold rates steady as it grapples with easing inflation and weak growth. Hawkish language could lift GBP temporarily, while dovish commentary focused on economic fragility would pressure sterling and UK yields.