Rate Decisions, CPI, and GDP in Focus as Global Growth Hangs in the Balance

The Week Ahead: Week of August 4, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
The second full week of August brings a high-stakes lineup of macro releases, led by U.S. inflation prints and growth data from key global economies. Tuesday kicks off with U.S. CPI for July, which will offer vital clues on the direction of inflation just as Fed officials maintain a cautious stance.

In Europe, German CPI and UK GDP updates will shed light on regional growth trends, with the UK in particular facing renewed scrutiny over stagnation risks. Meanwhile, Thursday’s U.S. PPI and jobless claims will test the durability of disinflation and labor market resilience.

In Asia, Japan’s GDP report on Friday will signal whether the fragile recovery is regaining traction, while holidays across multiple countries could thin liquidity and amplify price moves. With few central bank speeches on the docket, the data itself will dictate the tone into the latter half of August.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, August 12 – 07:30
RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
Previous: 3.85% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 3.85%, with inflation showing gradual signs of cooling and the labor market softening slightly. Markets will parse the policy statement for any shift in tone, particularly after recent signals of concern over household stress. A dovish lean may pressure the Aussie, while a hawkish hold, especially one referencing global inflation risks could offer support to AUD if local data remains firm.

Tuesday, August 12 – 15:30
Core CPI MoM (Jul)
Previous: 0.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
This key measure of underlying U.S. inflation remains central to the Fed’s rate calculus. A softer-than-expected core reading below 0.2% could reinforce market expectations for a policy pivot before year-end. However, any upside surprise may raise concerns that core inflation is proving more persistent, potentially delaying the Fed’s timeline for easing or even reawakening discussion of further hikes if broader price stickiness emerges.

Tuesday, August 12 – 15:30
CPI YoY (Jul)
Previous: 2.7% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Headline CPI is expected to remain close to the prior 2.7% reading, but the risk of reacceleration remains in focus given recent commodity and service cost trends. A higher-than-expected print would raise the odds of another hawkish Fed repricing, particularly if shelter and energy components pick up. Conversely, continued disinflation would firm up the case for rate cuts later this year.

Wednesday, August 13 – 09:00
German CPI MoM (Jul)
Previous: 0.0% | Forecast: 0.3% | Actual: N/A
German inflation is expected to edge higher after stagnating in June, as energy base effects fade and core components show stickiness. A hotter-than-expected print could complicate the ECB’s easing roadmap, especially if growth data fails to weaken significantly. Conversely, a benign reading would support the argument for rate cuts by year-end, especially amid persistent Eurozone stagnation.

Thursday, August 14 – 09:00
UK GDP YoY (Q2)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Annual UK GDP growth is forecast to rebound in Q2, helped by a recovery in services and stabilizing investment. However, the sustainability of this momentum remains uncertain heading into H2. A stronger-than-expected number may temper rate cut bets from the BoE, while a miss would reinforce concerns about underlying economic fragility and rising recession risks.

Thursday, August 14 – 15:30
Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly jobless claims will provide an updated read on U.S. labor market strength amid a backdrop of slowing hiring momentum. A sharp increase could reignite recession concerns and strengthen the case for Fed easing. On the other hand, continued low claims would underscore employment resilience and support the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance.

Thursday, August 14 – 15:30
PPI MoM (Jul)
Previous: 0.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Producer prices are expected to remain subdued, reinforcing the broader disinflation narrative. However, any unexpected uptick—particularly in core or services components—could raise flags about pipeline cost pressures feeding into consumer prices. A soft print would align with Fed easing expectations and support bonds.

Friday, August 15 – 02:50
Japan GDP QoQ (Q2)
Previous: 0.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Japan’s economy is expected to stagnate in Q2 as weak exports and subdued household spending offset gains in capital investment. A negative surprise could pressure the yen and raise expectations for further BoJ support, especially amid political calls for renewed fiscal stimulus. A positive surprise, however, could temper dovish pressure on the central bank.

Friday, August 15 – 15:30
Core Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
Previous: 0.5% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Core retail sales, which exclude autos, are a cleaner gauge of underlying consumer demand. A solid print would suggest households remain resilient despite elevated interest rates, while a downside miss would fuel fears that consumer strength is waning—potentially softening GDP forecasts for Q3.

Friday, August 15 – 15:30
Retail Sales MoM (Jul)
Previous: 0.6% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Headline retail sales are expected to remain firm, reflecting summer spending and stable labor income. However, any downside surprise could suggest that the consumer tailwind to growth is weakening. A strong result may reinforce confidence in a soft landing and delay Fed easing, especially if paired with firm inflation prints earlier in the week.