Published: 21 November 2025,06:30
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices remain under pressure amid weakening global demand, rising U.S. inventories, and persistent oversupply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers.
*Geopolitical factors, including a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal and India halting Russian crude imports from December, create near-term volatility but offer mixed directional cues.
*U.S. offshore drilling proposals and looming sanctions on Russian oil majors add further uncertainty to the market outlook.
Market Summary:
Oil prices edged lower amid weakening demand signals and rising U.S. inventories, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. The market weighed a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal, which could remove a significant risk premium, against India’s announcement that Reliance Industries will halt Russian crude imports from December 1, a move that could tighten global supply and add volatility to trade flows.
Supportive factors such as a larger-than-expected 3.4 million-barrel draw in U.S. crude stocks and looming sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil were largely offset by persistent global oversupply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ production. Analysts also note that longer-term proposals to open new U.S. offshore drilling areas, including off California and Florida, introduce additional uncertainty that could pressure prices if implemented.
In addition, seasonal demand concerns and slowing industrial activity in major consuming regions continue to weigh on the market, keeping bullish catalysts limited. Currency fluctuations, particularly the firm U.S. dollar, also add headwinds by making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
As a result, oil prices remain capped, with the near-term bias slightly bearish. Traders are closely monitoring both demand trends and potential supply disruptions, with any significant shift—whether from geopolitical escalation, sanctions enforcement, or unexpected inventory changes—likely to trigger short-term price swings in the commodity markets.
Technical Analysis
USOIL, H4:
USOIL is trading near the lower boundary of its consolidation range, with price holding just above support at 58.30. The market has been moving sideways between 60.35 resistance and 58.30 support, forming a clear consolidation box after breaking out of the previous descending channel. This structure suggests that momentum is compressing, and a breakout from the box remains possible in either direction.
RSI is hovering around 40, indicating mild bearish pressure without reaching oversold conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD is flat below the zero line, showing that momentum is weak but stable, with no strong directional signal yet.
A break above 60.35 would confirm bullish continuation and open the way toward 62.30. However, a breakdown below 58.30 would signal bearish extension toward the next support at 55.50.
Resistance level: 60.35, 62.30
Support level: 58.30, 55.50
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