4 August 2025,02:43
Daily Market Analysis
4 August 2025, 02:43
*US Jobs Disappoint: Nonfarm Payrolls rose just 130,000 vs. 200,000 expected, denting risk appetite and dragging commodities lower.
*OPEC+ Confirms Output Increase: Alliance will add 547,000 bpd starting September, completing the reversal of 2023’s voluntary cuts.
Crude oil prices, a key barometer of global growth, started last week on a strong footing, buoyed by upbeat US economic data and improving trade sentiment. A string of better-than-expected US reports—ranging from consumer confidence to manufacturing figures—initially stoked optimism over energy demand. Market confidence was further supported by President Trump’s continued push to strike bilateral trade deals with key global partners, temporarily lifting oil’s demand outlook.
However, the momentum reversed midweek following a surprisingly weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which came in far below consensus expectations. The disappointing jobs data triggered renewed concerns over the US economic outlook, weighing heavily on risk sentiment and commodity prices. The sell-off deepened after OPEC+ confirmed a coordinated plan to increase oil output by 547,000 barrels per day from September, accelerating the rollback of voluntary supply cuts imposed in 2023. The move, led by core members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, is widely interpreted as an attempt to regain lost market share in the face of rising non-OPEC supply—particularly from US shale.
Analysts also flagged the potential return of an additional 1.66 million barrels per day to the market, though no firm guidance has been issued. The timing of the OPEC+ decision, coming amid fragile macroeconomic conditions, raised fears of a renewed supply glut, prompting sharp declines in crude futures heading into the weekend.
Technically, crude oil has entered a consolidation phase near key support levels after a sharp pullback. WTI is currently testing the $66.65 support zone, with the overall bias skewed to the downside. The MACD indicator signals strengthening bearish momentum as its histogram widens below the signal line. Meanwhile, the RSI remains subdued at 37, indicating that sellers are still in control and there is room for further downside before reaching oversold territory.
If selling pressure intensifies, a decisive break below $66.65 could expose the next support at $64.55. Conversely, if buyers step in, the first resistance stands at $69.25, followed by the more structurally important level of $72.45. However, with fundamentals tilting bearish and macro headwinds in play, upside momentum may remain limited unless there’s a reversal in sentiment or surprise policy shift from OPEC+.
Resistance level: 69.25, 72.45
Support level: 66.65, 64.55
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