Jobs and Inflation Take Center Stage This Week

The Week Ahead: Week of September 29, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

The final days of September and the opening of October bring a dense calendar that could inject fresh volatility into global markets. The week kicks off with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s September rate decision, where policymakers are expected to hold fire but remain wary of persistent services inflation. UK GDP revisions and German CPI then set the tone in Europe, offering fresh signals on whether the BoE and ECB can justify patience in their respective easing paths.

Midweek attention shifts firmly to the Eurozone CPI flash estimate, followed by a crucial run of U.S. data—ADP employment, S&P Global and ISM manufacturing PMIs, and JOLTS openings. With China offline for Golden Week, thinner liquidity conditions may amplify swings in risk sentiment. The spotlight ultimately falls on Friday’s U.S. labor market trifecta: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, and wages. Taken together, these reports will be decisive for shaping expectations ahead of the Fed’s final two meetings of the year, determining whether policymakers can lean more aggressively into easing or must keep a cautious stance.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, September 30 – 07:30

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Sep)

Previous: 3.60% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates unchanged, but the statement will be closely scrutinized. Inflation in Australia has been cooling unevenly, with headline pressures easing but services and housing costs remaining sticky. Growth momentum has also slowed, with consumer confidence subdued and household debt weighing heavily on spending. A hawkish hold that emphasizes inflation risks could bolster the AUD by dampening rate-cut expectations into 2026. Conversely, if the RBA adopts a more cautious or dovish tone, markets may bring forward bets on easing, pushing AUD lower against peers.

Tuesday, September 30 – 09:00

UK GDP QoQ/YoY (Q2, Final)

QoQ Previous: 0.7% | YoY Previous: 1.3% | QoQ  Forecast: 0.3% | YoY  Forecast: 1.2% 

The UK economy managed to post modest growth in Q2, helped by resilient services output and government spending. The final revision will be dissected for signs of underlying momentum heading into the second half of the year, when higher borrowing costs and subdued business investment are expected to weigh more heavily. A stronger revision would ease immediate recession fears, supporting sterling by tempering expectations for early BoE easing. However, any downward adjustment would reinforce the case for the BoE to pivot sooner, particularly as inflation continues to drift lower.

Tuesday, September 30 – 12:00

German CPI MoM (Sep, Prelim)

Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

German inflation has slowed meaningfully in recent months, reflecting both energy base effects and weaker domestic demand. However, core pressures—particularly in services—have proven sticky. September’s flash estimate will be an important gauge ahead of the Eurozone-wide CPI release. A surprise rebound in prices would raise questions over whether the ECB can justify its dovish tilt, providing short-term support for the euro. On the other hand, further disinflation would embolden market bets that rate cuts could begin earlier, potentially weighing on the single currency.

Tuesday, September 30 – 16:45

US Chicago PMI (Sep)

Previous: 41.5 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Chicago PMI slipped into deep contraction in August, reflecting weakness in regional activity tied to manufacturing and business investment. September’s reading will indicate whether sentiment is stabilizing or deteriorating further. A rebound would suggest resilience in business outlook despite tighter financial conditions, while another weak print would reinforce concerns about an economy losing steam.

Tuesday, September 30 – 17:00

US CB Consumer Confidence (Sep)

Previous: 97.4 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Confidence among U.S. households fell sharply in August as higher interest rates and inflation worries weighed on sentiment. September’s report will be critical for gauging whether consumer demand—the backbone of U.S. growth—remains intact heading into Q4. A rebound would reassure markets that spending momentum can continue, supporting the dollar, while further weakness could amplify concerns of a slowdown and pressure risk assets.

Tuesday, September 30 – 17:00

US JOLTS Job Openings (Aug)

Previous: 7.181M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Job openings have steadily declined over recent months, pointing to a cooling labor market. The August figure will offer another test of how quickly demand for workers is easing. A sharper-than-expected drop would signal labor slack is building, bolstering Fed dovishness, while resilient numbers would complicate easing bets and support U.S. yields.

Wednesday, October 1 – 12:00

Eurozone CPI YoY (Sep, Prelim)

Previous: 2.0% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Eurozone’s inflation trajectory remains finely balanced. While headline CPI is hovering near the ECB’s target, core price pressures have not fully eased, leaving policymakers wary of declaring victory. September’s flash estimate will be key for cementing expectations into the October ECB meeting. An upside surprise could stall euro weakness by dampening bets on near-term rate cuts, while a softer reading would reinforce the dovish pivot narrative, adding to downside pressure on EUR/USD. Beyond FX, bond markets will also be highly sensitive, with any soft surprise potentially triggering a rally in sovereign debt.

Wednesday, October 1 – 15:15

US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)

Previous: 54K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Private sector hiring slowed sharply in August, raising concerns that the labor market may be cooling more quickly than expected. September’s print will serve as a preview for Friday’s official payrolls. If ADP once again shows sluggish hiring, it will strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts by signaling weaker labor demand, likely weighing on the dollar and boosting Treasuries. A stronger reading, however, would complicate the dovish narrative, forcing markets to reassess expectations for the pace of easing.

Wednesday, October 1 – 17:00

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

Previous: 48.7 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The U.S. manufacturing sector has remained under pressure, with activity contracting for much of the year. September’s ISM survey will be closely watched for signs of stabilization after months of subdued new orders and weak export demand. A rebound above 50 would revive optimism that the industrial sector is bottoming out, likely lifting U.S. yields and the dollar. Continued weakness, however, would feed into the broader slowdown narrative, bolstering expectations for policy easing and adding to risk-off sentiment.

Wednesday, October 1 – 17:30

US Crude Oil Inventories (Weekly)

Previous: -0.607M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly declined last week, reinforcing signals of resilient demand amid supply constraints. The next release will be closely watched as oil prices have surged to multi-week highs. Another draw would highlight tightness in the market, supporting oil-linked currencies like CAD and NOK, while a surprise build could ease energy-driven inflation fears and weigh on crude.

Thursday, October 2 – 15:30

US Initial Jobless Claims

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly jobless claims remain a key barometer of real-time labor market conditions. A sharp rise would confirm labor market weakness and bolster dovish Fed bets, while stable or falling claims would suggest resilience and limit the scope for aggressive easing.

Friday, October 3 – 15:30

US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)

Previous: 142K | Forecast: 220K | Actual: N/A

The marquee event of the week, the September payrolls report will be decisive in shaping market expectations for the Fed. August’s softer print stoked concerns that the labor market may be losing steam more rapidly than anticipated. A strong rebound above 200K would reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, potentially pushing Treasury yields higher and lending support to the dollar. Conversely, another weak outcome would fuel fears of a sharper slowdown, intensifying expectations for rate cuts before year-end and weighing heavily on risk appetite.

Friday, October 3 – 15:30

US Unemployment Rate (Sep)

Previous: 4.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The jobless rate has climbed to its highest level in nearly two years, sparking debate over whether labor market slack is emerging more quickly than policymakers expected. Another rise in September would validate expectations for a dovish Fed tilt, while a decline back toward 4% would complicate easing bets by suggesting underlying resilience.

Friday, October 3 – 15:30

US Average Hourly Earnings (Sep)

Previous: 0.3% MoM | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Wage growth remains a critical driver of inflation persistence. While overall inflation has moderated, sticky wage pressures pose a risk to the Fed’s disinflation narrative. A softer print in September would reassure markets that labor cost pressures are easing, boosting bonds and risk assets. However, a hotter-than-expected wage number could reignite fears of sticky inflation, weighing on equities and limiting the Fed’s room to ease.

Friday, October 3 – 17:00

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

Previous: 52.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Services remain the backbone of the U.S. economy, and September’s readings will be pivotal. A rebound in activity would suggest growth momentum remains intact despite tighter credit conditions, while weakness would feed the slowdown narrative. Rising prices would highlight sticky services inflation, limiting the Fed’s ability to ease aggressively, while softer input costs would strengthen the disinflation story.