11 November 2025,03:23
Daily Market Analysis New
11 November 2025, 03:23
*The Japanese yen continues to underperform against major currencies, even as GBP/USD trends lower — highlighting yen-specific weakness.
*Bank of Japan’s cautious tone and uncertainty under the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dampen expectations of imminent policy tightening.
*Subdued GDP growth and planned fiscal stimulus reinforce expectations that monetary policy will stay accommodative in the near term.
Market Summary:
The Japanese yen extended its weakness against major peers, including the U.S. dollar and British pound. While GBP/USD continues to trend lower, GBP/JPY has strengthened, underscoring persistent yen underperformance across the board.
Market participants remain uncertain about the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook following cautious remarks from board member Junko Nakagawa, who emphasized that the BoJ would act carefully before raising rates due to ongoing global trade uncertainties. This cautious stance, combined with expectations of a $65 billion economic stimulus plan proposed by newly appointed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, suggests continued accommodative policy bias.
Japan’s latest GDP data added to the bearish sentiment, expanding only 1.8% YoY in September, below market expectations of 2.5%. The slowdown was largely driven by technical factors such as the reversal of front-loaded exports to the U.S. ahead of new tariffs, a slump in housing construction following stricter building standards in April, and inventory adjustments after strong first-half accumulation.
Business investment also softened, as weaker capital goods demand was only partially offset by steady spending on software and construction. Meanwhile, housing investment plunged sharply following the pre-regulation construction rush earlier this year. Overall, these developments reinforce expectations that Japan’s recovery remains fragile, limiting the BoJ’s room for near-term tightening.
Technical Analysis
USD/JPY, H4:
USD/JPY is trading higher after rebounding strongly from the 153.15 support level. The pair is showing a classic breakout–retest–rebound formation, with bullish momentum strengthening.
The MACD indicator highlights increasing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 62 remains comfortably above the midline, suggesting continued upward bias. If the bullish trend persists, the pair could extend gains toward the next resistance level at 156.00. However, failure to sustain buying momentum may lead to a retracement toward 153.15 support.
Resistance Levels: 156.00, 158.60
Support Levels: 153.15, 149.70
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