Global Central Banks Take the Stage; Fed, BoJ, and BoE in Spotlight as Inflation Diverges

The Week Ahead: Week of June 16, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
A pivotal week awaits global markets as multiple central banks deliver rate decisions that may shape monetary policy outlooks into the third quarter. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision will headline, with investors looking for clarity on the interest rate trajectory amid stable inflation and moderate retail performance. Meanwhile, the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank will update their policy stance against a backdrop of sticky inflation in the UK and subdued price pressures in Switzerland. Japan’s BoJ is also expected to keep its ultra-loose policy unchanged. CPI data from the UK and Eurozone will add further texture to the inflation narrative, while U.S. retail and labor figures provide key insights into consumer and employment dynamics.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, June 17 – 06:00
BoJ Interest Rate Decision (June)
Previous: 0.50% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% as it continues to transition away from ultra-loose monetary policy. With inflationary pressures gradually rising and the yen under depreciation pressure, any hint of normalization or tapering could trigger heightened volatility in JPY crosses.

Tuesday, June 17 – 15:30
U.S. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
Previous: 0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Core retail sales in the U.S. are in focus this week as markets gauge the health of consumer spending amid sticky inflation and high interest rates. A soft print may signal waning demand, reinforcing expectations that the Fed could pivot to easing later in the year. A strong surprise, however, could boost the dollar and support risk sentiment.

Wednesday, June 18 – 09:00
UK CPI (YoY) (May)
Previous: 3.5% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Inflation in the UK remains a key focus for policymakers and markets alike. After moderating in April, the May CPI print could determine how long the Bank of England must maintain restrictive monetary conditions. A surprise to the upside would reinforce hawkish expectations and potentially strengthen the pound.

Wednesday, June 18 – 12:00
Eurozone CPI (YoY) (May)
Previous: 1.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Eurozone inflation continues to trend lower, raising questions over the sustainability of the ECB’s tightening path. A weaker CPI print would likely validate the ECB’s recent decision to pause rate hikes and could lead to further euro softness against major peers.

Wednesday, June 18 – 21:00
Fed Interest Rate Decision (June)
Previous: 4.50% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.50%, though the focus will be on Chair Powell’s remarks and updated economic projections. Market participants will be parsing the statement and dot plot for any signs of a policy pivot, especially amid mixed signals from inflation and labor data.

Thursday, June 19 – 14:00
BoE Interest Rate Decision (June)
Previous: 4.25% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Bank of England is anticipated to keep rates on hold at 4.25%, balancing inflation concerns with softening growth. With the May CPI data due earlier in the week, the decision may be finely balanced. Markets will closely watch the vote split and post-meeting commentary for signals on future rate adjustments.

Thursday, June 19 – 15:30
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Previous: 240K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Initial jobless claims will offer insight into ongoing labor market dynamics. A figure above the prior reading would indicate softening employment conditions, potentially reinforcing the Fed’s cautious tone. Conversely, a strong reading could challenge the narrative of a cooling jobs market.

Friday, June 20 – 15:30
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)
Previous: -4.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index remains in contractionary territory, reflecting subdued sentiment in the manufacturing sector. If June’s reading shows further deterioration, it may amplify concerns over weakening industrial demand, particularly amid tighter financial conditions and slowing global trade.