German GDP, U.S. Retail Sales & Core PCE, RBNZ Decision, and Holiday-Driven Liquidity to Guide Market Sentiment

The Week Ahead: Week of 24th November 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview
Markets head into the final full week of November navigating a lighter, holiday-compressed schedule, with U.S. Thanksgiving expected to reduce liquidity and exaggerate short-term moves. Still, several high-impact releases across the U.S., Eurozone, and New Zealand provide enough catalysts to shape sentiment into month-end.

The focus falls on U.S. retail data, PPI, and the Core PCE Price Index that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge to assess whether disinflation is sustaining momentum into Q4. These prints arrive at a time when markets are finely balanced between soft-landing optimism and concerns over cooling household demand. Meanwhile, Germany’s Q3 GDP, CB consumer confidence, and Durable Goods Orders offer a snapshot of the global demand backdrop.

Outside the U.S., the RBNZ rate decision is the key highlight, with investors watching whether policymakers maintain their cautious stance amid mixed domestic data. The U.K.’s Autumn Forecast Statement may add fiscal-policy volatility to GBP pairs. Reduced trading volumes on Thursday and Friday could amplify directionality in USD, commodities, and equity indices.

Key Events to Watch:

Tuesday, November 25 – 09:00

German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Previous: –300.0% | Forecast: 0.0% | Actual: N/A

Germany’s Q3 GDP will indicate whether Europe’s largest economy is stabilizing or slipping further into stagnation after months of weak industrial output and deteriorating business sentiment. 

Tuesday, November 25 – 15:30

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

Previous: 0.7% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Core retail spending is a direct gauge of underlying U.S. consumer strength, stripping out volatile categories. With households facing tighter credit conditions and softening wage growth, this release will reveal whether domestic demand remains resilient heading into Q4. Strong numbers would support the soft-landing narrative, boost equities, and potentially push U.S. yields higher. 

Tuesday, November 25 – 15:30 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)

Previous: 0.6% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

A broad measure of consumer activity, especially important ahead of the U.S. holiday shopping season. Markets will watch whether spending held up despite higher borrowing costs and still-elevated prices. 

Tuesday, November 25 – 15:30 

PPI (MoM) (Sep)

Previous: –0.1% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Producer inflation provides an early indication of pricing pressures flowing through the supply chain. Another month of subdued PPI would strengthen the disinflation narrative and support expectations for 2026 Fed rate cuts. 

Tuesday, November 25 – 17:00 

CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)

Previous: 94.6 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

This sentiment gauge highlights household views on the job market, inflation, and near-term economic prospects. Rising confidence typically supports consumption and risk assets, suggesting resilient demand heading into year-end. A decline could signal eroding household stability, raising concerns about slower Q4 spending and weighing on equities and USD.

Wednesday, November 26 – 03:00

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

Previous: 2.50% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The RBNZ’s tone will be closely monitored for clues about future policy direction amid mixed domestic data. If policymakers highlight persistent inflation risks or tight labor markets, NZD could strengthen on expectations of prolonged restrictive policy. A more cautious or dovish shift perhaps citing global slowdown concerns may pressure NZD and lift NZD-sensitive crosses.

Wednesday, November 26 – 12:00 

Autumn Forecast Statement

Previous: N/A | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Chancellor’s fiscal statement can significantly move GBP, as it outlines government spending plans, tax policies, and growth projections. Markets will assess whether fiscal policy remains supportive or shifts toward consolidation. Expansionary measures typically boost confidence and may lift sterling, while tighter fiscal guidance could weigh on economic outlook expectations and drag GBP lower.

Wednesday, November 26 – 15:30 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep)

Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Durable goods data gauges business investment appetite and industrial demand. Strong orders signal improving corporate confidence and capital spending, providing support for equities and USD. A weaker reading could reinforce the manufacturing slowdown narrative and revive recession concerns, especially if core capital goods also underperform.

Wednesday, November 26 – 15:30 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

Previous: 3.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Q3 GDP revision will show whether earlier estimates overstated or understated economic strength. Upward revisions may diminish expectations for early Fed easing and support USD. However, if growth is revised lower especially in consumption or investment components markets may view it as evidence that momentum is fading into Q4.

Wednesday, November 26 – 16:45 

Chicago PMI (Nov)

Previous: 43.8 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Chicago PMI, a forward-looking regional manufacturing index, often serves as an early signal for the national ISM manufacturing release. A recovery toward 50 would indicate tentative stabilization after prolonged contraction, potentially improving risk sentiment. Continued weakness may highlight ongoing industrial softening and weigh on U.S. growth expectations.

Wednesday, November 26 – 17:00 

Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep)

Previous: 2.9% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the most important release of the week for USD. A cooler print would reinforce the disinflation trend and strengthen expectations for 2026 rate cuts, likely pressuring the dollar and supporting risk assets. If inflation proves sticky, markets may push back easing expectations, lifting yields and supporting USD strength.

Wednesday, November 26 – 17:00 

New Home Sales (Sep)

Previous: 800K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

The housing market remains highly sensitive to elevated mortgage rates. Stronger-than-expected new home sales would signal that demand is holding up despite affordability challenges. Weakness, however, may suggest that higher borrowing costs are increasingly curbing housing activity, raising concerns about slowing household formation and construction momentum.

Wednesday, November 26 – 17:30 

Crude Oil Inventories

Previous: –3.426M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

Oil inventory changes often drive short-term volatility in crude prices. A sizeable draw could signal stronger demand or tighter supply, supporting oil and energy-linked currencies. Conversely, a large build may reflect softening consumption or increased production, pressuring crude and weighing on inflation-sensitive assets.

Friday, November 28 – 15:00 

German CPI (MoM) (Nov)

Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A

This early inflation indicator for Germany will help shape expectations ahead of the full Eurozone CPI release. Softer data would reinforce the disinflation trend and increase bets on earlier ECB easing in 2026, putting downward pressure on EUR. A hotter print may offer temporary support but is unlikely to fully reverse the broader downward inflation trajectory.

Optional Insight to Highlight Shutdown Impact:

The reopening of the U.S. government could provide a temporary boost to market confidence, reduce uncertainty, and restore delayed economic indicators. However, lingering backlogs and short-term funding resolutions may continue to create volatility in the near term, particularly for USD liquidity and risk-sensitive assets.