Published: 19 November 2025,07:07
Daily Market Analysis New
*U.S. equities extend a heavy four-day selloff, with the Dow shedding over 2,000 points as Nvidia’s earnings become the key near-term sentiment driver.
*Markets aggressively reprice Fed expectations, with the probability of no December rate cut jumping to 53% from 0% last month.
*All eyes on tomorrow’s NFP, which will determine the next leg for the U.S. dollar—soft data could restore easing expectations, while strong jobs numbers would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish shift.
U.S. equity markets remain under significant pressure, enduring a sharp four-day losing streak that has erased over 2,000 points from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Market volatility is expected to persist, with particular focus on today’s earnings release from Nvidia—a key bellwether for AI and technology sentiment.
The current market downturn has been primarily driven by a rapid repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market-implied probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in December has surged to 53%, a dramatic shift from 0% just one month ago. This hawkish repricing follows consistent messaging from Chair Powell and other Fed officials after October’s rate cut, suggesting diminished appetite for further near-term easing.
The U.S. dollar, after rallying more than 0.6% from recent lows on the back of this sentiment shift, now faces a critical test from upcoming labor data. Tomorrow’s September Nonfarm Payrolls report represents the next major catalyst, with potential to either reinforce or challenge the current hawkish Fed narrative. A soft employment reading could revive expectations for continued monetary easing, potentially weakening the dollar, while strong data would likely support the currency and validate the Fed’s more cautious stance.
Traders should brace for elevated volatility across asset classes, with Nvidia’s earnings providing immediate direction and payroll data likely to determine the medium-term trajectory for both equities and the dollar.
The U.S. dollar index has demonstrated renewed strength, establishing a firm foothold above the 99.00 psychological level and advancing toward the critical liquidity zone near 99.65. This resistance represents a pivotal technical threshold where the index’s near-term trajectory will likely be determined.
A rejection at this level could trigger a bearish trend reversal, potentially pushing the DXY back toward recent support levels. Conversely, a decisive breakout above 99.65 would represent a significant structural break, confirming a strengthening bullish bias and opening a path toward the 100.00 psychological handle.
Momentum indicators support the constructive near-term outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has crossed above its 50 mid-line, indicating building bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has completed a bullish crossover above its zero line. This configuration suggests buying pressure is accelerating. The convergence of price action near a key resistance level with strengthening momentum indicators positions the dollar index at a critical juncture, with the 99.65 level serving as the primary determinant for near-term direction.
Resistance Levels: 100.40, 101.15
Support Levels: 98.60, 97.70
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