Published: 27 November 2025,05:01
Daily Market Analysis New
*Dollar drifts lower after briefly testing 100.25 amid rising expectations of Fed easing.
*Gold extends rebound as softer greenback and persistent global uncertainty boost safe-haven demand.
*Thin post-Thanksgiving liquidity keeps market moves muted, with investors focused on U.S. data and policy cues.
TThe dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, slipped after briefly retesting resistance near 100.25. Softer-than-expected U.S. economic releases—including CB Consumer Confidence, Chicago PMI, and Retail Sales—have reinforced concerns that growth is slowing as markets approach December’s Federal Reserve meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now price in an 80% probability of a 25bps rate cut at the December 9–10 FOMC meeting, up sharply from around 40% earlier this month.
Gold has extended its rebound, supported by a softer dollar and rising conviction that the Fed may resume easing. Investors are rotating into bullion amid lingering uncertainty over the U.S. economic outlook, with weaker growth and persistent inflation concerns underpinning demand for safe-haven assets. Short-term volatility is further amplified by movements in U.S. Treasury yields and market speculation on the Fed’s next steps.
Geopolitical developments are also influencing market sentiment. Reports of tentative progress in U.S.-brokered Russia-Ukraine talks have provided cautious optimism, though officials emphasize that any formal agreement remains far off. Gold, in particular, remains sensitive to shifts in the geopolitical landscape, with headline risks likely to continue driving near-term fluctuations.
Liquidity conditions remain thinner than usual following the Thanksgiving holiday, resulting in muted price action across major markets. Against this backdrop, traders are carefully monitoring upcoming U.S. economic releases and Federal Reserve commentary for signals on growth and policy direction. The dollar faces headwinds from elevated rate-cut expectations, while gold benefits from both a softer greenback and persistent global uncertainty.
Technical Analysis
Dollar Index, H4:
The Dollar Index is trading lower after a prior breakout below the upward trendline, currently testing support at 99.45. Market participants are closely watching for a decisive break below this level; a successful breach could extend losses toward the next support at 99.00, potentially confirming a double-top pattern.
Conversely, if bearish momentum fails to sustain, the index could rebound from 99.45 and retest the resistance zone near 100.25. Momentum indicators provide mixed signals: the MACD suggests fading bullish pressure, while RSI levels remain near neutral, indicating that short-term swings could dominate price action.
Resistance Levels: 100.25, 100.85
Support Levels: 99.45, 99.00
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are trading higher following a breakout above previous resistance at 4085.00, signaling a short-term bullish bias. The MACD shows strengthening upward momentum, while RSI at 61 remains above the midline, supporting the potential for further upside.
The next resistance level to monitor is 4220.00. Should bullish momentum falter, gold may retrace toward 4085.00, testing this level as support before any further directional movement is confirmed. Overall, momentum remains favorable for a continuation of the short-term uptrend, though traders should remain alert to any reversal signals near key resistance zones.
Resistance Levels: 4220.00, 4370.00
Support Levels: 4085.00, 3925.00
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