Data-Heavy Week Tests Growth and Inflation Signals

The Week Ahead: Week of October 20, 2025 (GMT+3)

Weekly Market Preview

This week brings an important mix of growth and price data across Asia, Europe and the United States that will matter for central-bank timing and risk appetite. China’s third-quarter GDP report leads the calendar and will be parsed for evidence the world’s second-largest economy is regaining momentum showing a stronger print would lift commodity markets and risk assets, while a disappointment could weigh on global industrial demand.

In Europe, the UK CPI reading will be an early barometer of whether services inflation remains sticky that any upside surprise would complicate the Bank of England’s glide path to easier policy. The U.S. schedule is packed: weekly jobless claims and housing starts give early signals on the labor market and household resilience, while Friday’s cluster of U.S. CPI and S&P PMI prints will be decisive for the Fed’s rate calculus. With yields elevated and markets sensitive to inflation surprises, the mix of GDP, CPI, housing and PMI data could produce sharp moves in FX and fixed income if results deviate from expectations.

Key Events to Watch:

Monday, October 20 – 05:00
China GDP (YoY) (Q3)
Previous: 5.2% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
China’s Q3 GDP will be a headline mover for global growth sentiment. The prior 5.2% print reflected stimulus measures and pockets of industrial recovery, but external demand has been uneven. A stronger reading would signal that domestic policy support is translating into tangible momentum — positive for commodity exporters and cyclical equities. A weaker result would renew concerns over global demand and weigh on industrial commodities, sending Asian currencies and equities lower while supporting safe-haven Treasuries.

Wednesday, October 22 – 09:00
UK CPI (YoY) (Sep)
Previous: 3.8% | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
U.K. inflation has edged down from its highs but remains elevated, driven largely by services and housing costs. A hotter-than-expected print would bolster the case for the BoE to keep policy restrictive longer, likely supporting sterling and pushing UK yields higher. A softer reading would strengthen market bets on eventual easing, which would weigh on sterling and could help UK gilts rally.

Thursday, October 23 – 15:30
US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
Previous: 218K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Weekly claims are a high-frequency check on labor-market stress. Claims at or below the prior level signal ongoing resilience and would reduce the likelihood of near-term Fed easing. A surprise increase would be interpreted as fresh slack building in the labor market, amplifying dovish expectations and likely supporting Treasuries while pressuring the dollar.

Thursday, October 23 – 17:00
US Existing Home Sales (Sep)
Previous: 4.00M | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Housing demand remains sensitive to mortgage rates and affordability constraints. A rebound in existing sales would suggest buyers are stepping back in despite higher financing costs, supporting home-builders and cyclical sectors. A drop would underscore affordability headwinds and likely dampen confidence in consumer spending, pressuring equities and commodity demand.

Friday, October 24 – 15:30
US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)
Previous: 0.3% | Forecast: 0.3% | Actual: N/A
September’s CPI readings are the marquee inflation prints of the week. Core CPI captures underlying services and shelter pressures — if it slows materially, markets will accelerate pricing of Fed rate cuts and bonds would rally. Conversely, a renewed uptick in core or headline CPI would push back on easing hopes, lift Treasury yields and support the dollar. Equities could see sector-specific moves — consumer discretionary under pressure if inflation re-accelerates, while financials and energy may benefit.

Friday, October 24 – 16:45
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct, prelim)
Previous: 52.0 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Manufacturing has been uneven across regions; a print above 50 would signal continued expansion, easing recession worries and supporting cyclicals. A fall toward or below 50 would reinforce the slowdown narrative, pressuring industrial stocks and pro-risk asset classes while benefiting defensive sectors.

Friday, October 24 – 16:45
S&P Global Services PMI (Oct, prelim)
Previous: 54.2 | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
Services activity is a key driver of U.S. growth. A resilient reading would support the case for a gradual slowdown rather than a hard landing, helping risk sentiment and the dollar. A marked weakening would raise doubts about consumer resilience and amplify bets for quicker Fed easing.

Friday, October 24 – 17:00
US New Home Sales (Sep)
Previous: 800K | Forecast: N/A | Actual: N/A
New home sales give a timely signal on construction demand and future supply. Strength here would point to ongoing pipeline support for housing and related demand (appliances, building materials), while a drop would reinforce the narrative that the housing market is cooling under higher rates and shows negative for cyclical sectors and commodity demand.