26 September 2025,03:43
Daily Market Analysis
26 September 2025, 03:43
*Bitcoin slid below $109,000 and Ethereum lost the $4,000 mark, triggering over $1 billion in liquidations and deepening bearish sentiment.
*Strong 3.8% U.S. GDP and political risks tied to a potential government shutdown spurred broad risk-off moves, weighing heavily on crypto.
*U.S. PCE inflation will guide near-term direction; BTC risks testing $105,000 and ETH $3,800 unless rebounds above $111,000 and $4,100 materialize.
The cryptocurrency market faced a severe sell-off during the previous session, with Bitcoin breaking below the $109,000 support level and Ethereum falling through the critical psychological barrier at $4,000. The downturn triggered a cascade of liquidations exceeding $1 billion across major derivatives exchanges, including approximately $500 million in long positions, exacerbating the downward momentum and damaging near-term sentiment.
The correction reflects a broad-based de-risking movement across financial markets, fueled by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and rising political uncertainty. Yesterday’s GDP report showed the economy growing at an annualized rate of 3.8%, reinforcing perceptions that the Federal Reserve may maintain a more hawkish stance than previously anticipated. This was compounded by growing concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown, as Congressional budget negotiations remain deadlocked, prompting investors to reduce exposure to risk-sensitive assets.
Market participants are now bracing for today’s release of the U.S. PCE inflation data—the Fed’s preferred price gauge. A higher-than-expected reading could validate fears of persistent inflation and trigger another wave of selling across crypto markets. Conversely, a softer print may offer temporary relief, though the underlying sentiment is likely to remain fragile amid political and macroeconomic uncertainties.
The breakdown of key support levels suggests further downside risk in the near term. Bitcoin now faces potential tests toward $105,000, while Ethereum may target the $3,800 zone. A recovery above $111,000 for BTC and $4,100 for ETH would be needed to signal any meaningful stabilization.
Bitcoin has broken below its recent consolidation range, declining approximately 2% to test critical support near the $108,250 level. This breakdown signals a deterioration in near-term market structure and increases the potential for a deeper correction if buyers fail to defend this zone.
The cryptocurrency is now at a technical inflection point. A successful hold above $108,250, followed by a meaningful rebound, could suggest the formation of a near-term base and signal a potential trend reversal. However, a failure to maintain this support would likely trigger another wave of selling pressure, potentially opening a path toward the psychologically significant $100,000 level.
Momentum indicators reflect the growing bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index remains subdued below its midline and has revisited oversold territory, indicating persistent selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence has generated a bearish crossover—often referred to as a “death cross”—and continues to trend lower, confirming that downward momentum is accelerating.
Resistance Levels: 112,450.00, 117,350.00
Support Levels: 108,250.00, 103,650.00
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