17 October 2025,05:10
Daily Market Analysis New
17 October 2025, 05:10
*Easing Geopolitical Risk: Reports suggest U.S. President Trump and Russia’s Putin plan to meet in Hungary to discuss ending the Russia–Ukraine war, reducing fears of supply disruption.
*Inventories Surprise to the Upside: U.S. EIA crude stocks rose sharply by +3.524M barrels (vs. +0.300M expected), signaling weaker demand and higher storage levels.
*Trade War Fears: Renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and tariff threats raise global demand concerns for crude.
Market Summary:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued its sharp decline this week, extending losses as the prolonged U.S. Crude oil prices retreated sharply as easing geopolitical tensions reduced fears of supply disruptions. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin plan to meet in Hungary soon to discuss ending the Russia–Ukraine war — a development that could potentially stabilize energy supply flows and weigh on oil prices.
Adding further pressure, the latest U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory data showed a sharp build of +3.524M barrels, far exceeding market expectations of +0.300M, suggesting weaker refinery demand and rising storage levels.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues to discuss potential increases in oil production, compounding downside pressure. On the macro front, intensifying U.S.–China trade tensions — with the threat of a full 100% tariff implementation — are dampening global growth prospects, further clouding the demand outlook for crude.
However, uncertainty remains over the long-term direction. Should OPEC+ reconsider its supply strategy in response to falling prices, or if peace talks between the U.S. and Russia fail to materialize, volatility could quickly return to the oil market.
Crude oil continues to trade lower after a confirmed break below the 57.85 support, signaling sustained bearish momentum. MACD shows strengthening downside pressure, while RSI (32) indicates limited buying interest and potential oversold conditions.
If the bearish bias persists, prices may extend losses toward the next support at 53.70. Conversely, a rebound above 57.85 could trigger a short-term corrective move toward 62.35.
Resistance Levels: 57.85, 62.35
Support Levels: 53.70, 49.05
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