BTC, H4:
BTC staged a robust rebound of over 10% from its recent low near the $102,173 level, but the upward momentum has since stalled as the price consolidates within a key Fair Value Gap (FVG). This pause within the FGV suggests the initial recovery may be concluding, often a precursor to a resumption of the prior trend once the price imbalance is filled.
The case for a bearish near-term bias is strengthening. A decisive drop below the current FVG would signal that sellers have regained control and could trigger the next leg down. This potential breakdown is supported by weakening momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been rejected from approaching overbought territory and is now trending lower. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has completed a bearish crossover at an elevated level, a classic signal that downward momentum is overwhelming. The convergence of these factors points to a high risk of a renewed sell-off.
Resistance Levels: 116,765.00, 119,550.00
Support Levels: 111,956.00, 109,015.00
NZDUSD, H4
The NZDUSD pair remains entrenched within a defined bearish trajectory, having consistently failed to reclaim a critical foothold above the 0.5850 liquidity zone. The subsequent development of a lower-high price pattern has reinforced the prevailing downward bias, signaling sustained selling pressure.
The pair is now testing a significant support level at the 0.5720 mark. A decisive break below this threshold is critical, as it would open a path toward the April low and provide further confirmation of the bearish structural bias.
Momentum indicators align with this pessimistic outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near oversold territory, reflecting persistent selling momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to flow flatly below its zero line, indicating a lack of any significant bullish impetus. The convergence of price action and momentum signals suggests the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Resistance Levels: 0.5750, 0.5800
Support Levels:0.5700, 0.5650
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