Bitcoin, Ether Rebound as ETF Outflows Cloud Recovery

Key Takeaways:

*Exchange confidence remains fragile: Binance’s withdrawal restart eased access concerns, but substantial outflows show investors remain cautious.

*ETF withdrawals weaken demand: Bitcoin ETFs lost approximately $643 million on Friday, while Ethereum ETFs shed approximately $156 million.

*Ethereum faces persistent fund selling: Five consecutive sessions of ETF outflows suggest its rebound still lacks sustained institutional support.

Market Summary:

Cryptocurrencies entered November under pressure as the approximately $6.3 billion Binance security breach, weakening institutional demand and the technology-stock selloff undermined confidence. Early Monday reporting placed Bitcoin near $78,000 and Ethereum around $2,270, reflecting tentative stabilisation after Friday’s losses. Binance began restoring withdrawals in phases on November 1, including BTC, ETH and major stablecoins, while pledging to absorb customer losses. However, confidence remained fragile: the exchange reported approximately $3.64 billion in initial net outflows, while a separate DefiLlama snapshot cited in later reporting showed approximately $5.8 billion over 24 hours. These figures cover different observation periods. Reopening withdrawals reduces immediate concerns about access to funds, but sustained outflows could prolong uncertainty over exchange liquidity.

Institutional fund flows added another headwind. Farside data showed US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $643.2 million on October 30, reversing four consecutive sessions of inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $233.7 million of withdrawals, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at $201 million and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB at $129.5 million. Ethereum funds also faced persistent selling, recording $155.7 million in Friday outflows, including $76.6 million from BlackRock’s ETHA. Ether ETFs experienced withdrawals throughout the October 26–30 week, totalling approximately $431.4 million, versus approximately $202.4 million for Bitcoin funds. This suggests ETH’s recovery faces a particularly difficult demand backdrop, even when it temporarily outperforms Bitcoin during rebounds. A sustained recovery would be more convincing if renewed ETF inflows accompanied higher prices.

Leverage and the movement of stolen assets introduced additional volatility. An October 30 CoinDesk report, citing CoinGlass, recorded approximately $1.53 billion in rolling 24-hour liquidations, with bullish positions accounting for nearly 84%. Bitcoin and Ether represented approximately $499 million and $358 million, respectively. Forced closures amplified selling, while subsequent short liquidations helped support the rebound, meaning part of the recovery reflected position adjustments. Separately, the FBI attributed the Binance attack to North Korea’s TraderTraitor activity on October 31 and said stolen assets were being converted primarily into ETH before potential laundering through DeFi and instant-swap services. These conversions create uncertainty over subsequent asset movements; they do not establish lasting investment demand for Ethereum.

The broader macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging. Friday’s 2.9% Nasdaq decline reflected concerns about AI spending and profitability, reinforcing the weaker risk appetite affecting crypto. Meanwhile, elevated oil prices and persistent inflation kept further monetary tightening in focus, with early Monday reporting indicating approximately a 72% probability of a December Fed rate increase. Regulatory scrutiny also remained relevant: a November 2 report said the Bank of Korea was reviewing 31 financial institutions’ exposure to crypto-related disruptions, through a survey begun before the Binance breach. Looking ahead, the November 3 US midterm elections, Friday’s payrolls report, exchange-recovery updates and the resumption of ETF trading could drive further volatility. Fundamentally, Bitcoin and Ethereum’s recovery depends on improving investment demand, stabilising exchange confidence and a more supportive environment for risk assets.

Technical Analysis

BTC/USD, H4: 

Bitcoin is trading lower, currently testing the 76,845.00 support level, which acts as a key near-term downside pivot. Market attention remains focused on a potential breakdown below 76,845.00. A confirmed break could extend losses toward the 75,000.00 psychological support level, followed by 71,845.00 if selling pressure intensifies, reinforcing the bearish short-term structure.

However, momentum indicators suggest that selling pressure may be easing. The MACD is showing increasing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 49 has rebounded sharply from oversold territory and is approaching the midline. This suggests that buying interest is recovering, increasing the possibility of a short-term technical rebound.

If bearish momentum continues to fade, Bitcoin may stage a technical rebound and retest the 80,465.00 resistance level, followed by 83,345.00 if recovery momentum strengthens.

Resistance Levels: 80465.00, 83345.00

Support Levels: 76845.00, 71845.00