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Published: 26 October 2026,06:26
Daily Market Analysis New
*President Donald Trump signalled that a decision on reaching an agreement with Iran or resuming military strikes was approaching.
*The deployment of additional US forces, including a third aircraft carrier group, heightened concerns over potential military escalation.
*Persistent Iranian and Houthi threats around the Strait of Hormuz continue to raise concerns over global energy supplies.
Crude oil prices maintained their broader bullish momentum following last week’s strong rally, with Brent trading near $116 per barrel and WTI hovering around $102, remaining close to six-month highs. The recent surge was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, which heightened concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supplies. However, prices edged slightly lower on Monday as investors assessed President Donald Trump’s latest comments regarding a potential diplomatic agreement with Tehran or the resumption of military strikes.
President Trump indicated that a decision on whether to pursue negotiations or resume military action against Iran was approaching, adding further uncertainty to the region’s geopolitical outlook. Meanwhile, the United States has deployed additional military forces, including a third aircraft carrier group, toward the Persian Gulf. Reports also suggested that military operations could resume following the November 3 US midterm elections, reinforcing concerns over potential disruptions to regional crude oil production and exports.
Meanwhile, persistent threats from Iran and Yemen’s Houthi forces continue to raise concerns over maritime security around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy transportation routes. Any renewed attacks on commercial vessels or regional energy infrastructure could threaten the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports, potentially tightening global supplies and supporting further gains in oil prices.
Looking ahead, crude oil could remain supported by elevated geopolitical risk premiums as investors await further developments in US–Iran negotiations. A diplomatic breakthrough could ease supply concerns and trigger profit-taking following the recent rally. Conversely, renewed military escalation or additional disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could reinforce bullish momentum and push oil prices toward fresh highs. Investors will continue monitoring geopolitical headlines for clearer directional signals.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading lower after retracing from the 103.60 resistance level, suggesting that upside momentum has started to weaken near recent highs.
Momentum indicators are turning bearish, with the MACD showing increasing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 53 has retreated from overbought territory but remains above the midline. This suggests that buying pressure is weakening, increasing the possibility of a short-term technical correction.
If bearish momentum persists, crude oil could extend its decline toward the 100.20 support level, followed by 96.50 if selling pressure intensifies.
However, if bearish momentum begins to fade, crude oil may stage a technical rebound and retest the 103.60 resistance level, with further upside toward 106.70 if buyers regain control.
Resistance Levels: 103.60, 106.70
Support Levels: 100.20, 96.50
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