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Published: 23 October 2026,03:23
Daily Market Analysis New
*Reported tanker damage in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure sustain supply-disruption risks and a significant geopolitical risk premium.
*Elevated energy prices are keeping major central banks cautious, while tighter monetary policy risks slowing economic activity and future oil demand.
*Renewed military action or further shipping disruptions could push crude prices higher, while sustained de-escalation and recovering Hormuz transit flows may ease supply concerns and trigger a pullback.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, with Iran reporting that seven oil tankers were damaged or set ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, either through attacks or contact with naval mines. Iranian officials continue to insist the strategic waterway will stay restricted until the United States meets Tehran’s conditions, while the United States and Israel are reportedly refining plans for potential renewed strikes after the U.S. midterm elections in early November. Concurrent Houthi drone and missile attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and airports have added further supply concerns. Although oil shipments through the Strait have recovered to roughly 75–80 percent of pre-conflict levels, the persistent threat of disruption continues to embed a significant risk premium in the market.
Meanwhile, major central banks are responding to the inflationary impulse from elevated energy prices. The Federal Reserve has already delivered rate increases and is widely expected to maintain a cautious, potentially tighter stance at its forthcoming meeting, given sticky inflation readings. The European Central Bank has also raised rates in response to the energy shock, while the Bank of Japan continues its gradual tightening path. Higher policy rates across major economies are intended to contain second-round inflation effects but risk moderating global growth and, over time, oil demand.
In the near term, crude prices are likely to stay supported by geopolitical risk and limited spare capacity outside core OPEC+ producers, who have kept production quotas largely unchanged. Any concrete de-escalation or sustained increase in Hormuz transit volumes would ease the risk premium, while renewed military action or broader infrastructure attacks would push prices higher still. Monetary tightening may eventually exert downward pressure, yet supply-side uncertainties currently dominate market direction.
Brent, H4:
Brent crude remains firmly within a broader bullish trajectory, continuing to trade above its long-term ascending trendline. The latest price action has seen the commodity break above the upper boundary of an ascending triangle pattern, reinforcing the prospect of further upside and signalling a potential continuation of the prevailing uptrend.
The technical breakout suggests that buying pressure remains dominant, with the ascending triangle pattern pointing to a potential extension of the bullish move. Sustained upward momentum could pave the way for further gains as Brent extends its advance.
As long as Brent maintains its position above the breakout zone and its long-term ascending trendline, the broader bullish structure is likely to remain intact. A sustained rally could bring the key psychological $120.00 per barrel level into focus, near its all-time peak. However, a failure to hold above the breakout zone would raise the risk of a corrective pullback before the uptrend resumes.
Resistance Levels: 123.45, 133.70
Support Levels: 110.20, 96.35
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