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Published: 16 October 2026,08:06
Daily Market Analysis New
*Australian employment fell by 39,300 versus expectations for a 20,000 increase, pushing AUD/USD toward 0.6890.
*The soft labour report and unemployment at 4.7% sharply reduced the probability of further near-term tightening.
*Strong quarterly inflation could revive rate-hike bets, but labour-market weakness and global risk factors are likely to limit the Aussie’s upside.
The Australian dollar came under significant pressure following the release of weaker-than-expected September labour force data, which highlighted a clearer softening in domestic employment conditions. Employment fell by 39,300 positions against market expectations of a rise of around 20,000, marking the largest monthly decline in more than a year. The unemployment rate held at a near five-year high of 4.7 percent after an upward revision to the prior month, while the participation rate declined and part-time jobs dropped sharply even as full-time employment increased. The soft outcome prompted a rapid reduction in expectations for further Reserve Bank of Australia tightening, with the probability of a November rate hike falling sharply.
In response, the Aussie retreated to its lowest levels since early July, touching near 0.6890 against the U.S. dollar before recovering modestly. The decline reflected a narrowing of the interest-rate differential advantage that had previously supported the currency, as markets scaled back bets on additional policy tightening after four rate increases this year. While some analysts caution that monthly employment figures can be volatile and the trend measure still showed underlying growth, the data raised the hurdle for an immediate further hike and shifted focus toward whether the RBA will remain on hold at its next meeting.
Looking ahead, the near-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains cautious and data-dependent. The upcoming quarterly inflation report later this month will be pivotal, as firmer price pressures could still keep the door open for additional tightening despite the softer labour market. Global factors, including U.S. Treasury yields, risk sentiment, and developments in commodity markets, will also influence the currency’s trajectory. A stabilisation in employment trends or improved risk appetite could provide some support, but the recent evidence of labour market cooling is likely to limit upside for the Aussie until clearer signals emerge on the RBA’s policy path.
AUDJPY, H4:
AUD/JPY remains firmly entrenched in a long-term downtrend. The latest price action saw the pair rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 111.15 before retreating toward its recent low, reinforcing the prevailing bearish technical structure.
A decisive break below the recent low would confirm a continuation of the downtrend, establish a fresh lower low and potentially trigger another wave of selling pressure.
Conversely, a sustained recovery above 111.15 would weaken the bearish outlook and suggest that a broader technical rebound may be developing. Until that level is reclaimed, however, the balance of risk remains tilted to the downside.
Resistance Levels: 109.64, 110.21
Support Levels: 108.70, 108.00
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