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Published: 12 October 2026,05:17
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil prices moved lower after President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate “energy ceasefire.”
*A halt to attacks on Russian refineries and Ukrainian energy infrastructure could reduce regional supply disruptions and weigh on oil prices.
*Ukraine has signalled readiness to stop attacking Russian refineries if Moscow reciprocates, although confirmation and compliance from Russia remain uncertain.
Crude oil prices retreated as positive developments surrounding the Russia–Ukraine conflict introduced a fresh bearish catalyst for the energy market. President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate “energy ceasefire,” raising expectations that attacks on energy infrastructure could ease.
The announcement followed recent discussions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump. Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine was prepared to take steps toward de-escalation, including halting attacks on Russian oil refineries if Moscow stopped targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
If both sides comply, reduced attacks on Russian refineries could improve refinery operations and ease concerns over disruptions to Russian energy supply, placing downward pressure on crude oil prices.
However, uncertainty remains elevated. A previous energy ceasefire announcement failed to develop into a lasting agreement, meaning markets will likely require clearer confirmation from Russia and evidence that both sides are adhering to the latest arrangement.
Meanwhile, losses in crude oil remain limited by persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East. U.S.–Iran tensions remain elevated, while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, continuing to threaten regional crude flows. As a result, easing Russia–Ukraine supply risks are being offset by a significant Middle East geopolitical risk premium, leaving oil caught between improving supply expectations in Europe and continued disruption risks in the Gulf.
CL-Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading lower, currently testing the 89.90 support level, which acts as a key near-term downside pivot.
Momentum indicators remain bearish, with the MACD showing increasing bearish momentum and the RSI at 42 staying below the midline. This suggests that selling pressure may persist if support fails to hold.
Market attention is focused on a potential breakdown below 89.90. A confirmed break could extend losses toward the next support level at 88.20, reinforcing the bearish short-term structure.
However, if bearish momentum begins to fade, crude oil may stage a technical rebound and retest the 92.75 resistance level, followed by 95.95 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 92.75, 95.95
Support Levels: 89.90, 88.20
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