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Published: 30 September 2026,06:41
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil settled around 2.5% lower on Tuesday as improving Middle East exports eased supply concerns.
*Saudi Arabia resumed tanker loadings from Yanbu after restarting the East-West Pipeline.
*Middle East crude exports rose to around 16.33 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the conflict began.
*Stronger Saudi and regional exports are reducing some of the geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices.
Crude oil prices moved lower as investors focused on signs that Middle East supply conditions are continuing to improve.
The main bearish catalyst came from Saudi Arabia, which resumed crude tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline. The recovery provides Saudi Arabia with another important export route and improves the outlook for regional crude shipments.
More broadly, crude exports from Middle East producers rebounded to around 16.328 million barrels per day in September, marking their highest level since the regional conflict began in February. Saudi Arabia and the UAE were among the main contributors to the recovery.
The improvement in physical supply has reduced fears of an immediate shortage and encouraged investors to unwind part of the geopolitical premium previously built into oil prices.
However, the broader supply picture remains fragile. Middle East exports are still below pre-conflict levels, while disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and wider regional tensions continue to create uncertainty.
For now, improving Saudi and regional export flows are creating downside pressure on crude oil, but renewed disruptions to shipping or regional infrastructure could quickly restore supply concerns and support another rebound.
Technical Analysis
CL-Oil, H4:
Crude oil prices are trading lower, currently testing the 88.95 support level, which acts as a key near-term downside pivot.
Momentum indicators remain bearish, with the MACD showing increasing bearish momentum and the RSI at 38 staying below the midline. This suggests that selling pressure may persist if support fails to hold.
Market attention is focused on a potential breakdown below 88.95. A confirmed break below this level could extend losses toward the next support at 85.35, reinforcing the bearish structure.
However, if bearish momentum begins to fade, crude oil may stage a technical rebound and retest the 93.35 resistance level, followed by 95.95 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 93.35, 95.95
Support Levels 88.95, 85.35
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