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Published: 30 September 2026,06:38
Daily Market Analysis New
*The Dollar Index extended its gains and is on track for its best monthly performance since June.
*The US 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2002.
*Markets are pricing nearly 100 basis points of additional Fed tightening over the next 12 months.
*Attention now turns to PCE inflation and Nonfarm Payrolls, which could determine the next move for both the dollar and gold.
The US dollar extended its gains as investors continued to price a higher interest-rate environment from the Federal Reserve.
The greenback remains supported by rising Treasury yields, with the 30-year US Treasury yield reaching its highest level since 2002. Markets are also pricing nearly one percentage point of additional Fed rate increases over the next 12 months, reinforcing demand for dollar-denominated assets.
Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have strengthened the hawkish narrative. Fed Governor Michael Barr reiterated that further rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation under control, while New York Fed President John Williams said another increase later this year could be appropriate.
Gold, however, managed to rebound slightly despite continued dollar strength and elevated Treasury yields.
The recovery appears to be driven mainly by technical correction and bargain buying after gold fell more than 9% over the past month. Fundamentally, the environment remains challenging for bullion, as higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets while a stronger dollar adds additional pressure.
The next major catalysts will be the US PCE Price Index and Nonfarm Payrolls report. Stronger-than-expected inflation or labour-market data could reinforce Fed tightening expectations, push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, and place renewed pressure on gold.
Conversely, softer data could ease rate-hike expectations and allow gold’s short-term rebound to extend.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices are trading higher after rebounding from the 4,115.00 support level, suggesting that short-term buying interest has returned.
Momentum indicators have improved, with the MACD showing increasing bullish momentum, while the RSI at 41 has rebounded sharply from oversold territory. Although the RSI remains below the midline, the recovery suggests that gold may extend its technical rebound if buying momentum persists.
If bullish momentum continues, gold could extend gains toward the next resistance level at 4,265.00, followed by 4,395.00 if upside momentum strengthens.
However, if bullish momentum fails to sustain, gold may retrace and retest the 4,115.00 support level, with further downside toward 3,965.00 if selling pressure returns.
Resistance Levels: 4265.00, 4395.00
Support Levels: 4115.00, 3965.00
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