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Published: 30 September 2026,06:36
Daily Market Analysis New
*AUD/USD fell below 0.7000 despite the RBA raising rates by 25 basis points to 4.60% and maintaining a hawkish policy statement.
*Governor Michele Bullock’s cautious remarks reduced expectations for a November hike, while elevated U.S. yields and dollar strength added pressure.
*Hotter Australian inflation could revive tightening bets, but a softer reading may deepen the Aussie’s downside amid persistent external headwinds.
The Australian dollar has lost traction since the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60 percent, its highest level since 2011. Although the move was widely anticipated and the accompanying statement retained a hawkish tone—citing materialising upside risks to inflation from elevated energy prices, stronger domestic data and capacity constraints—the currency failed to hold initial gains and slipped below the 0.7000 level against the U.S. dollar.
The primary reason for the subsequent weakness lies in the more cautious messaging from Governor Michele Bullock during the post-decision press conference. She revealed that the Board had actively considered holding rates unchanged, citing risks to the housing market and potential global slowdown linked to the Middle East conflict. Bullock also expressed hope that the cumulative tightening delivered this year would prove sufficiently restrictive, tempering market expectations for an immediate follow-up hike in November. This shift reduced the perceived terminal rate and weighed on Australian yields relative to the United States, where Treasury yields remain elevated and Federal Reserve hike odds stay firm. Broader U.S. dollar strength has compounded the pressure on the Aussie.
Looking ahead to the remainder of the trading week, the Australian dollar’s path will depend heavily on the August inflation data and any further signals on the RBA’s reaction function. A hotter-than-expected print could revive near-term hike expectations and provide some support, while a softer outcome would reinforce the more dovish interpretation of the Board’s stance and extend downside pressure. With the U.S. dollar underpinned by high yields and upcoming American economic releases, the Aussie faces a challenging environment and is likely to remain vulnerable unless domestic data or a clear shift in global risk sentiment intervenes.
EUR/JPY has formed a double-bottom pattern, providing an early indication that the prevailing downtrend may be approaching a reversal. The bullish signal strengthened after the pair broke decisively above the critical resistance zone near 181.20, confirming renewed buying interest.
The pair is now attempting to break above its descending trendline, further supporting the prospect of a broader bullish reversal. A sustained move above the trendline would strengthen the technical outlook and suggest that buyers are regaining control. However, failure to maintain the breakout could leave the pair vulnerable to a pullback toward the former resistance zone, which may now serve as near-term support.
Resistance Levels: 1.6420, 1.6640
Support Levels:1.6200, 1.6010
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