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Published: 30 September 2026,06:34
Daily Market Analysis New
*The yen has strengthened as USD/JPY retreats from the key 160 level, despite broad U.S. dollar strength.
*The BoJ’s rate hike to 1.25% and heightened intervention warnings have discouraged speculative yen selling.
*Further BoJ tightening or official action could support the yen, though wide U.S.–Japan rate differentials may limit gains.
The Japanese yen has outperformed most G10 peers in recent sessions, reflecting a combination of domestic policy support and heightened official vigilance against excessive depreciation. After periods of sharp weakness earlier in the year, the currency has stabilised and gained relative ground, with USD/JPY retreating from levels near the 160 psychological threshold that previously triggered intervention concerns. This relative resilience stands out against a backdrop of broad U.S. dollar strength driven by elevated Treasury yields and firmer Federal Reserve rate expectations.
Key catalysts underpinning the yen’s firmness include the Bank of Japan’s continued policy normalisation. The central bank raised its short-term policy rate to 1.25 percent in mid-September—the highest level since 1995—signalling a faster pace of adjustment than earlier anticipated and leaving open the possibility of further increases later this year. Japanese officials have also reinforced verbal and potential actual intervention readiness, with recent comments emphasising coordinated messaging with U.S. counterparts against disorderly yen declines. These factors have raised the cost of speculative short-yen positions and helped limit further depreciation even as the wide interest-rate differential with the United States continues to favour the dollar on pure yield grounds.
In the near term, the yen’s trajectory will remain sensitive to the interplay between U.S. and Japanese monetary policy paths, upcoming domestic data such as the Tankan survey and Tokyo CPI, and any fresh signals on intervention. A sustained hold by the BoJ or softer Japanese inflation readings could temper further gains, while additional tightening or renewed official action would support further appreciation. With USD/JPY still influenced by the substantial rate gap and global risk sentiment, the currency is likely to trade in a relatively contained range, with the balance of risks tilted toward moderate yen strength provided intervention threats remain credible and the BoJ maintains its normalisation course.
EURJPY, H4:
EUR/JPY remains firmly entrenched in a broader downtrend, with bearish momentum resuming after the pair staged a brief technical rebound toward the 181.30 region. The recovery appeared to sweep nearby liquidity but failed to generate sufficient follow-through, allowing sellers to regain control and extend the decline.
The pair continues to trade within a well-defined descending channel and has fallen to its lowest level since November, reinforcing the prevailing bearish technical structure. The formation of lower highs and lower lows indicates that selling pressure remains dominant, while the inability to sustain a recovery above 181.30 suggests that the level may now serve as a key resistance area.
As long as EUR/JPY remains below 181.30 and contained within the descending channel, the near-term outlook is likely to stay tilted to the downside. Any rebound may be viewed as corrective unless the pair can break above the channel and establish a sustained foothold beyond the 181.30 threshold. Conversely, continued weakness at current levels could pave the way for a further extension of the bearish trend.
Resistance Levels:179.90, 181.90
Support Levels:176.15, 174.50
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