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Published: 21 September 2026,08:42
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil prices fell as Saudi Arabia successfully increased exports despite disruptions to its East-West pipeline.
*Saudi crude exports recovered to above 4 million barrels per day in September, up from 2.4 million bpd in August.
*Saudi shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased sharply, helping offset reduced Yanbu exports.
*Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and ongoing US–Iran tensions remain key geopolitical risks.
*Renewed hopes for diplomatic progress are also removing part of oil’s recent geopolitical risk premium.
Crude oil prices moved lower as investors focused on improving Saudi Arabian export flows despite continued Houthi attacks and unresolved tensions between the US and Iran.
Saudi Arabia has increased crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to compensate for disruptions to its East-West pipeline and reduced exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Saudi crude exports recovered to just above 4 million barrels per day in September, compared with only 2.4 million bpd in August.
Saudi crude moving through Hormuz has also risen sharply, averaging around 2.9 million bpd over recent days compared with roughly 700,000 bpd in August. The recovery in physical flows has reduced fears that the East-West pipeline disruption will create a major immediate shortage.
As a result, Brent crude fell toward $101–$102 per barrel, while WTI moved toward the $98 area, reaching their lowest levels in more than a week. Renewed hopes for possible US–Iran diplomatic talks have also encouraged traders to unwind part of the recent geopolitical risk premium.
However, supply risks have not disappeared. Houthi forces continue to target Saudi infrastructure, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly below pre-conflict levels. Only around a dozen commodity vessels crossed the waterway over the weekend, compared with much higher normal traffic before the conflict.
For now, the short-term pressure on oil is being driven by stronger Saudi exports and renewed diplomatic hopes. However, with regional tensions still elevated, any fresh attack on energy infrastructure or deterioration in US–Iran relations could quickly restore the bullish supply-risk premium.
Crude oil has shifted into a bearish structure after breaking below the rising trendline and losing the 98.65 support level. Price has fallen sharply from the 105.60 resistance area and is now trading around 94.05, with the recent decline forming lower highs and lower lows. The break below the rising trendline suggests that the previous bullish structure has weakened, while 92.85 is now the key near-term support. A sustained break below this level could expose the next support at 87.50.
Momentum indicators also remain bearish. RSI has fallen to around 31, entering oversold territory, which indicates strong selling pressure but also leaves room for a technical rebound. MACD remains firmly negative, with the MACD line below the signal line, while the histogram is negative. This confirms that bearish momentum remains dominant, although the oversold RSI suggests that a short-term bounce cannot be ruled out.Overall, the 4H bias remains bearish, although the oversold RSI means a short-term corrective rebound is possible.
Resistance Levels: 98.65, 105.60
Support Levels: 92.85, 87.50
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