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Published: 8 September 2026,06:18
Daily Market Analysis New
*Fed repricing remains the key driver: Strong U.S. jobs data pushed September Fed hike expectations toward ~60%, keeping the dollar supported but also limiting gold’s upside in the near term.
*Yen strength is adding pressure on the dollar: The yen has rallied to a seven-month high around 153, supported by stronger Japanese GDP and wages, rising BoJ hike expectations and carry-trade unwinding.
*Oil is creating an inflationary cross-current: Brent has climbed toward $97–98, while disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz raise concerns over energy supply and could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy.
The US dollar and gold are being driven by a tug-of-war between renewed Federal Reserve tightening expectations, sharp Japanese yen appreciation and elevated geopolitical risks. The Dollar Index remains relatively subdued around 98.8–99.2 despite stronger-than-expected U.S. labour-market data, with August nonfarm payrolls rising by 162,000 versus expectations of around 56,000 while unemployment held at 4.1%. The stronger report lifted market expectations for a September Fed rate hike to around 60%, from roughly 50% previously, supporting U.S. Treasury yields and initially weighing on gold. However, the dollar has struggled to sustain its gains as markets turn their attention to this week’s PPI and CPI releases, which will be crucial in determining whether the latest hawkish Fed repricing has further room to run.
A major source of pressure on the dollar has been the sharp rally in the Japanese yen, with USD/JPY falling toward 153–154 and the yen reaching a fresh seven-month high. Expectations of another BOJ rate hike, combined with stronger Japanese economic data, carry-trade unwinding and potential capital repatriation, have materially shifted sentiment in favour of the yen. Japan’s Q2 GDP was revised higher to 1.4% annualised from 1.1%, while July real wages increased 2.4% year-on-year, strengthening the case for further BOJ policy normalisation. The yen’s appreciation has also contributed to broader dollar weakness, which in turn has provided support for gold by making dollar-denominated bullion more affordable for international buyers. This has allowed gold to recover toward $4,430–$4,435 per ounce after falling following the stronger U.S. payrolls report.
Meanwhile, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and elevated oil prices are creating an additional layer of complexity for both assets. Brent crude has climbed toward $97–98 a barrel as concerns over shipping and energy infrastructure around the Strait of Hormuz increase, while Iran has warned of further retaliation against U.S. interests. Higher oil prices raise global inflation expectations and could encourage the Fed and other major central banks to maintain or even tighten monetary policy, creating a headwind for both gold and risk assets. At the same time, escalating geopolitical tensions increase demand for traditional safe havens such as gold. This opposing dynamic explains why gold has remained relatively rangebound around the $4,400 area: geopolitical and safe-haven demand provide support, while higher yields and renewed Fed-hike expectations limit the upside.
Beyond the near-term macro headwinds, gold retains strong structural support from central-bank and Asian demand. The People’s Bank of China added another 20 tonnes of gold in August, extending its purchasing streak to 22 consecutive months, while elevated gold flows through China and Hong Kong highlight continued physical demand. As a result, the broader gold outlook remains structurally bullish but tactically rangebound, while the dollar remains mixed-to-soft despite the stronger U.S. labour market. The next major directional catalyst for both assets will be the U.S. inflation data: a hotter-than-expected CPI would reinforce Fed-hike expectations, potentially lifting the dollar and Treasury yields while pressuring gold; conversely, a softer CPI could weaken the dollar, lower rate expectations and provide renewed upside for bullion. For now, the dominant market theme is the interaction between Fed repricing, aggressive yen strength, elevated oil-driven inflation risks and geopolitical safe-haven demand, with U.S. inflation likely to determine the next major move in both the dollar and gold.
GOLD, H4:
Gold remains range-bound with a cautiously bearish bias after failing to sustain the recovery above the 4,480.00 resistance and remaining below the 4,520.00 level. Price is currently trading around 4,425, consolidating within the 4,375–4,480 range. A sustained break above 4,477.95 would strengthen the recovery and expose 4,520.00 as the next resistance, followed by 4,646.64. On the downside, a break below 4,375.00 would reinforce the bearish structure and open the way toward 4,310.00, followed by 4,220.00. For now, the 4,375–4,480 range remains the key zone to watch for the next directional move.
Momentum indicators are showing signs of improvement. RSI has recovered to 49.61, moving back toward the neutral 50 level after recently approaching oversold territory, suggesting that selling pressure has eased but bullish momentum has not yet been firmly established. Meanwhile, MACD is showing an early bullish recovery, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram turning positive, indicating that upside momentum is gradually strengthening. Overall, the bias remains cautiously bearish below 4,480, but improving momentum could support another attempt toward this resistance. A decisive breakout above 4,480–4,520 would be needed to shift the outlook more convincingly bullish.
Resistance Levels: 4450.00, 4520.00
Support Levels: 4375.00, 4310.00
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