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Published: 7 September 2026,06:34
Daily Market Analysis New
*US Nonfarm Payrolls rose 162K, well above expectations of 56K.
*The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, while labour-force participation improved.
*Stronger labour data revived expectations of a September Fed rate hike.
The US dollar entered September under pressure following a sharp rally in the Japanese yen and a series of weaker-than-expected US labour-market indicators. However, the narrative shifted significantly after the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the US economy added 162,000 jobs in August, far above expectations for a 56,000 increase.
The details of the employment report were also relatively encouraging. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-on-month, and previous payroll figures were revised higher. Labour-force participation also improved, challenging earlier concerns that the US economy was experiencing a rapid deterioration in employment conditions.
The stronger jobs report supported the US dollar primarily through expectations for Federal Reserve policy. A resilient labour market gives policymakers greater flexibility to focus on inflation rather than economic weakness, increasing the possibility that interest rates could rise again.
The market transmission was relatively straightforward:
Stronger employment → Greater confidence in US growth → Higher Fed rate-hike expectations → Higher Treasury yields → Stronger US dollar
Following the report, expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed increase at the September meeting moved back toward 60%. This reinforced the inflation-focused message recently delivered by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole.
However, the dollar surrendered part of its initial post-NFP gains as traders took profits, suggesting that bullish conviction remains incomplete. The stronger employment report has improved the dollar’s short-term outlook, but it has not yet confirmed a broader trend reversal.
Gold prices moved lower as the stronger employment data pushed Treasury yields and the dollar higher. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, while a stronger dollar makes bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
The focus now shifts toward inflation. The upcoming Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports could determine whether the NFP-driven dollar rebound develops into a more sustainable move.
A stronger-than-expected inflation report could further increase expectations for a September Fed hike, supporting Treasury yields and the dollar while placing additional pressure on gold. In contrast, softer inflation could reverse part of the recent repricing, weaken the dollar and provide renewed support for bullion.
For now, the August NFP report has significantly improved the dollar’s near-term fundamental outlook. However, the next major confirmation will need to come from inflation before markets can determine whether the recent rebound represents the beginning of a broader bullish trend.
GOLD, H4:
Gold prices are trading lower, currently testing the 4,300.00 support level, which serves as a key near-term downside pivot.
Momentum indicators remain bearish, with the MACD showing increasing bearish momentum, while the RSI at 23 stays below the midline and has entered oversold territory. This suggests that selling pressure remains dominant, although the risk of a short-term technical rebound is also increasing.
Market attention is focused on a potential breakdown below 4,300.00. A confirmed break could extend losses toward the next support level at 4,225.00, reinforcing the bearish structure.
However, if bearish momentum fails to persist, gold may stage a technical rebound and retest the 4,425.00 resistance level, followed by 4,525.00 if recovery momentum strengthens.
Resistance Levels: 4435.00, 4575.00
Support Levels: 4310.00, 4190.00
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