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Published: 2 September 2026,08:07
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil extends rally as renewed US-Iran strikes intensify Strait of Hormuz supply risks.
*Brent approaches $100 as prolonged shipping disruptions raise concerns over global crude availability.
*Iranian exports remain constrained, while historically low Hormuz traffic limits the effectiveness of additional OPEC+ supply.
Market Summary:
Oil prices extended their sharp rally as renewed US-Iran military strikes heightened fears of a prolonged disruption to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent settling around $94.65 and WTI at $90.22 on Tuesday before extending gains toward $95.50 and $91.00 respectively in early Asian trading. The latest escalation followed US strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets after reported attempts to disrupt commercial shipping, while Iran responded with attacks on US-linked military positions in the region. Reports that tankers were struck while exiting the Strait have further increased concerns over maritime security. With vessel traffic through Hormuz remaining extremely depressed, the market is increasingly pricing a persistent physical supply risk rather than a temporary geopolitical premium, keeping the prospect of $100 Brent firmly in focus.
The supply concerns are being reinforced by evidence that the disruption is already affecting actual oil flows. Iran has reportedly gone weeks with severely constrained crude exports, while shipping activity through Hormuz remains at historically low levels, with Kpler data indicating only a handful of confirmed vessel crossings recently. Although Gulf producers have attempted to maintain exports through alternative routes, these routes cannot fully replace the volumes normally transported through Hormuz. At the same time, OPEC+’s additional 188,000 barrels-per-day production increase for September provides some additional supply, but its effectiveness is limited if crude cannot be transported efficiently to end users. The situation is therefore increasingly shifting the market’s focus from “how much oil is produced” to “how much oil can actually reach consumers.”
Refined-product markets are showing even greater signs of tightness. Disruptions at refineries in the Middle East and Russia, combined with Russia’s decision to extend its diesel export ban through September 30, have pushed US diesel futures to a 52-month high, with diesel prices reportedly rising around 51% over the past 10 weeks. The US diesel crack spread has also reached a record level of roughly $107 per barrel, highlighting severe strength in refining margins and tightness in middle-distillate supplies. Meanwhile, preliminary API data pointed to a 2.6 million-barrel decline in US crude inventories for the week ended August 28, alongside a 265,000-barrel decline in distillates. If confirmed by the EIA, the crude draw would end a five-week period of inventory builds and provide another layer of support to prices.
However, the longer-term outlook contains a potential counterweight. The Trump administration is pushing to increase US refining capacity and domestic fuel production while also pursuing a major agreement to unlock additional Venezuelan crude production. The Venezuela deal could eventually provide a substantial source of heavy crude for US Gulf Coast refiners, while Trump has also indicated that Venezuelan oil could help replenish the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which remains near multi-decade lows. Nevertheless, these measures are unlikely to provide meaningful near-term relief because Venezuela’s ageing infrastructure would require years of investment before production could rise substantially. For now, the balance of risks remains firmly bullish for oil, with the direction increasingly dependent on the duration of the Hormuz disruption and whether US-Iran hostilities escalate further or move toward a credible de-escalation.
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil has turned bullish after breaking above the 87.60 resistance, extending the recent recovery toward 90.90. Price is now approaching the 93.40 resistance, which represents the next major upside barrier. A sustained break above 93.40 would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the way toward the 95.00 area. On the downside, 87.60 has become the immediate support, while a break below this level would weaken the current bullish structure and expose 84.25, followed by the 80.25–78.50 support zone.
Momentum indicators continue to favour the bulls, although conditions are becoming stretched. RSI has risen to 76, entering overbought territory and suggesting that a short-term pullback or consolidation could develop, but it does not yet signal a confirmed reversal. Meanwhile, MACD remains bullish, with the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram expanding into positive territory, indicating that upside momentum remains strong. Overall, the bias remains bullish above 87.60, with 93.40 as the key resistance to watch, although the elevated RSI increases the risk of a short-term pullback before further gains.
Resistance Levels: 93.40, 100.20
Support Levels: 87.60, 84.25
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