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Published: 28 August 2026,06:15
Daily Market Analysis New
Key Takeaways:
*DXY remains supported with sticky PCE inflation, resilient jobless claims and hawkish Fed commentary reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate outlook.
*Markets see only around a one-third chance of a September hike, but roughly 74% odds of a hike by December, keeping the dollar supported ahead of Warsh’s speech.
*Gold remains resilient around $4,580–$4,600 despite a firmer dollar, supported by central-bank buying, ETF inflows, fiscal concerns and safe-haven demand.
The US dollar and gold are entering Friday with conflicting fundamental forces, as markets await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for clearer direction on monetary policy. The dollar has stabilised after last week’s decline, with the DXY around 99.1–99.2, supported by sticky US inflation and resilient economic data. July headline PCE inflation remained elevated at 3.7% YoY, while core PCE stood around 3.3%, both reinforcing concerns that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 203,000, while Q2 GDP growth held at 1.5%, suggesting that the US economy remains relatively resilient. This combination of persistent inflation and a stable labour market gives the Fed greater flexibility to keep policy restrictive and has helped maintain expectations for at least one rate hike by December.
Hawkish signals from Fed officials have further supported the dollar while creating some headwinds for gold. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued that current monetary policy may not be sufficiently restrictive, with inflation still running above target. Markets are currently pricing only around a one-third probability of a September hike, but the probability of a hike by December remains around 74%, keeping the “higher-for-longer” narrative alive. This is broadly supportive for the dollar and Treasury yields, while potentially limiting gold’s upside because the precious metal does not generate interest income. However, gold has remained remarkably resilient around $4,580–$4,600, indicating that the market is not solely focused on interest rates.
A major reason for gold’s resilience is the renewed US fiscal credibility and dollar-debasement concerns following the Treasury’s expansion of long-duration bond buybacks. Although the programme helped reduce longer-term yields, it also raised concerns about greater government intervention in the Treasury market and the sustainability of US debt. The widening US goods trade deficit to $118.8 billion in July adds another structural concern. These factors have encouraged investors to seek alternative stores of value, with gold and Bitcoin ETFs both recording strong inflows, while gold is also supported by continued central-bank purchases and improving ETF participation. At the same time, geopolitical developments involving Iran, Oman, Qatar and the Strait of Hormuz continue to provide an additional layer of safe-haven support, although signs of diplomatic progress have reduced some immediate geopolitical demand.
The key near-term catalyst is therefore Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. A clearly hawkish message would likely strengthen the dollar and push yields higher, creating downside pressure on gold and potentially triggering a deeper correction from its recent highs. Conversely, a balanced or dovish tone that leaves room for future easing could weaken the dollar, lower yields and provide another leg higher for gold. Overall, the dollar has a firm near-term fundamental backdrop from sticky inflation, resilient US data and hawkish Fed rhetoric, while gold remains structurally constructive due to fiscal concerns, central-bank demand and safe-haven flows. This creates a highly sensitive USD-gold setup heading into the Fed speech, with the direction of yields and the dollar likely determining the next major move.
Technical Analysis
GOLD, H4:
Gold has turned bearish-to-neutral after retreating from the 4,695 resistance and breaking below the 4,610 Fibonacci support, with price now consolidating around 4,580. The pullback has brought price toward the 4,555–4,520 support zone, making this a key area for the next move. A sustained break below 4,520 would strengthen the bearish outlook and expose 4,485, followed by 4,470. On the upside, 4,610–4,645 forms the immediate resistance zone, while a recovery above 4,645 would ease the current selling pressure and reopen the path toward 4,695.
Momentum indicators are leaning bearish. RSI has fallen to 48, slipping below the 50 level and indicating that buying momentum has weakened, although it remains above oversold territory. Meanwhile, MACD remains bearish, with the MACD line below the signal line and the histogram firmly in negative territory, suggesting that downside momentum is still dominant. Overall, the bias remains bearish below 4,645, with 4,520 acting as the key support that could determine whether the current pullback develops into a deeper correction or stabilises for another rebound.
Resistance Levels: 4645.00, 4695.00
Support Levels: 4525.00, 4440.00
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