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Published: 9 July 2026,07:10
Daily Market Analysis New
*The US dollar remained supported by safe-haven demand as renewed US-Iran tensions increased geopolitical uncertainty.
*Rising oil prices lifted inflation expectations, driving Treasury yields higher and strengthening the greenback through wider yield differentials.
*The June FOMC minutes reinforced the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance, with policymakers highlighting persistent upside inflation risks.
The US dollar remained broadly supported around the 101 level as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand, despite some intraday fluctuations. Market sentiment deteriorated after President Donald Trump declared that the interim peace agreement with Iran was “over” and confirmed additional US military strikes, reigniting concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne crude oil. The sharp rise in oil prices revived inflation concerns and pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to a one-month high near 4.58%, providing additional support for the greenback through wider yield differentials.
The release of the June FOMC meeting minutes further reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a higher-for-longer policy stance. Although policymakers unanimously agreed to leave interest rates unchanged, the minutes highlighted persistent upside inflation risks, with several officials warning that higher energy prices, tariffs, stronger AI-related investment and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty could keep inflation elevated. The minutes also revealed that some policymakers believed another rate hike could become appropriate if inflation fails to moderate.
Investors also paid close attention to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s intention to reduce forward guidance, signalling that future monetary policy decisions will become increasingly dependent on incoming economic data. The more cautious communication strategy has reduced market visibility on the Fed’s policy path, while money markets have continued to raise expectations for at least one additional rate hike later this year, further underpinning demand for the US dollar.
Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor upcoming US inflation and labour market data for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. At the same time, developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict, movements in oil prices and Treasury yields are expected to remain key drivers of dollar performance, as prolonged geopolitical tensions could continue supporting safe-haven flows and reinforce expectations of tighter US monetary policy.
Technical Analysis
Dollar Index, H4:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains in a medium-term uptrend despite losing momentum over the past two weeks. Following a strong rally from the 99.50 area, the index reached a peak near 101.80 before entering a period of consolidation. Price is now trading just below the key 101.10 resistance level, suggesting that buyers are pausing after the recent advance while maintaining the broader bullish structure above the rising trendline.
Momentum indicators point to a loss of short-term bullish momentum rather than a confirmed reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to around 47, slipping below its moving average and hovering near the neutral 50 level, reflecting indecisive market sentiment. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flattening around the zero line, with the MACD line slightly above the signal line while the histogram has turned marginally negative. This suggests that bullish momentum has faded and the market may continue to consolidate before establishing its next directional move. Overall, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously bullish while the DXY holds above the 100.10 support and the ascending trendline.
Resistance Levels: 101.10, 101.85
Support Levels: 100.10, 99.50
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