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Published: 7 July 2026,06:04
Daily Market Analysis New
*Crude oil remains range-bound after the U.S.-Iran peace deal eased supply disruption concerns and secured shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
*A deadly Russian airstrike near Kyiv and the prospect of greater U.S./NATO involvement have revived geopolitical risks, which could disrupt energy markets and support oil prices.
*While WTI is holding support near $68.00, any escalation in Eastern Europe could lift prices toward the $73.00–$75.00 resistance zone as geopolitical risk premiums return.
Crude oil prices have remained relatively calm in recent sessions after WTI Crude dipped below the $70.00 mark, returning to pre-Middle East crisis levels. The war premium that had supported prices earlier has largely been erased following the U.S.-Iran peace deal and secured passage through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the black gold has traded sideways over the past week, reflecting balanced supply and demand dynamics amid reduced immediate disruption fears.
However, renewed geopolitical tensions have emerged from Eastern Europe. Reports indicate that a Russian airstrike in the Kyiv area resulted in 28 casualties, marking a new phase of crossfire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The United States is now expected to step in alongside NATO, which could introduce fresh uncertainties into global energy markets. Any escalation involving major powers risks supply chain disruptions, sanctions effects, or broader energy security concerns.
The near-term outlook for crude oil is tilting toward potential upside. While the market had settled into a range-bound phase, renewed conflict in Europe could act as a catalyst for a surge in prices if it threatens global energy stability or prompts tighter sanctions. WTI support remains around recent lows near $68.00, with resistance near $72.00–$75.00. Traders should monitor NATO/U.S. responses and energy inventory data closely, as geopolitical headlines are likely to drive volatility.
Technical Analysis
West Texas Intermediate has been trading in a relatively sideways pattern after falling below the key psychological support level of $70.00. The prolonged consolidation suggests that the recent wave of selling pressure has begun to ease, with buyers and sellers currently in balance as the market searches for its next directional catalyst.
Despite the lack of a decisive move, recent price action has become increasingly constructive. WTI has started to form a higher-low pattern, indicating that buyers are gradually stepping in at higher price levels. This improvement in market structure suggests that bearish momentum may be fading and that a technical rebound could be developing.
The momentum indicators reinforce this view. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is also forming a higher-low pattern, a positive divergence that often signals weakening downside momentum and improving buying pressure. The alignment between the higher-low price structure and the MACD suggests that the market is gradually building a base for a potential recovery.
However, further confirmation is still required before a bullish trend reversal can be established. The immediate resistance level at $69.80 remains the key hurdle for the bulls.
A decisive breakout above $69.80 would confirm the improving technical outlook and signal that buyers have regained control of the market. Such a move would represent a bullish trend reversal and could pave the way for a broader recovery in crude oil prices.
Resistance Levels: 77.50, 84.80
Support Levels: 62.60, 55.80
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