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Published: 29 June 2026,07:26
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices remain supported as fragile US-Iran ceasefire conditions and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to offset improving supply conditions.
*Renewed military tensions in the Middle East have reinforced the geopolitical risk premium, keeping crude prices highly sensitive to developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices remain highly sensitive to developments surrounding the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, with markets balancing improving supply conditions against renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Following the announcement of a temporary memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, crude prices initially fell as investors anticipated a gradual normalization of exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Commercial shipping resumed, tanker movements accelerated, and more than 20 million barrels of crude reportedly exited the strategic waterway, prompting Brent and WTI to retreat toward pre-conflict levels as much of the geopolitical risk premium was priced out.
However, optimism proved short-lived after renewed military exchanges over the weekend reignited concerns over supply security. The United States launched strikes on Iranian military targets following attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, before Iran retaliated against US military facilities in the Gulf. Although both sides later agreed to temporarily halt hostilities and resume diplomatic talks in Qatar, repeated ceasefire violations have left traders cautious, with geopolitical risks continuing to support crude prices.
Beyond the headlines, analysts increasingly believe the recovery in global oil supply could take longer than initially expected. While tanker traffic leaving the Persian Gulf has improved, much of the recent increase reflects previously stranded vessels departing rather than a full normalization of exports. Meanwhile, incoming tanker traffic remains subdued due to shipping security concerns, insurance costs, damaged infrastructure, and production disruptions. Analysts from ING and ANZ have warned that these constraints could delay supply normalization for several months, leaving oil prices vulnerable to renewed upside if tensions escalate again.
Supply dynamics remain mixed as Saudi Aramco resumes crude loadings at its Ras Tanura export terminal and OPEC+ gradually increases production. However, investors continue to focus on actual physical exports rather than announced production targets, while inventory replenishment in major consuming countries such as the United States and China could provide additional support for demand in the coming months. Despite these supportive factors, downside risks remain. Improving export flows have reduced fears of a prolonged supply shock, while a stronger US dollar and expectations of higher interest rates could weigh on global growth and fuel demand. Investors are also closely monitoring this week’s US Non-Farm Payrolls report, as stronger-than-expected data could reinforce Fed tightening expectations and create additional headwinds for commodity prices.
Overall, the near-term outlook for oil remains cautiously bullish but highly headline-driven. While improving export flows have reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium, repeated ceasefire violations, constrained physical supply, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are likely to keep crude prices volatile in the coming sessions.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil remains under sustained bearish pressure despite a modest rebound from recent lows, with prices continuing to trade below key resistance levels. The broader market structure remains characterized by lower highs and lower lows, suggesting that sellers continue to dominate while buyers have only managed a limited corrective recovery.
Momentum indicators suggest that downside momentum is gradually fading but have yet to confirm a bullish reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered toward the neutral 40 level after rebounding from oversold conditions, indicating that selling pressure has eased while buying momentum remains limited. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has formed a bullish crossover below the zero line, with the histogram turning slightly positive, suggesting that short-term upside momentum is beginning to improve even though the broader trend remains bearish.
Resistance Levels: 76.80, 84.05
Support Levels: 66.70, 57.85
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