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Published: 25 June 2026,06:57
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USDJPY, H4:
USD/JPY has surged into uncharted territory above the 161.00 level, extending its long-term bullish trend and reaching levels not previously seen in the market. The rally reflects sustained demand for the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, supported by the widening interest rate differential between the two economies.
However, despite the impressive advance, the pair is beginning to show signs that bullish momentum may be fading. Recent price action indicates that USD/JPY has transitioned into a period of sideways consolidation, suggesting that buyers are becoming less aggressive after the strong rally.
Momentum indicators are also pointing to a potential loss of upside strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been trending lower despite prices remaining near their highs, indicating that buying momentum is weakening. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has also started to decline, reflecting a slowdown in bullish momentum.
The combination of rising prices and weakening momentum indicators has created a bearish divergence, a technical signal that often precedes a corrective pullback. Such divergences suggest that while prices have continued to trade at elevated levels, the underlying strength of the uptrend is diminishing.
As a result, the risk of a near-term technical correction is increasing. While the broader trend remains bullish, traders should closely monitor the pair’s ability to sustain its current levels. Continued weakness in momentum indicators could trigger profit-taking activity and lead to a retracement from recent highs.
Resistance Levels: 162.00, 162.88
Support Levels: 161.10, 159.90
XAGUSD, H4
Silver has come under significant selling pressure, with the metal plunging to its lowest level since late 2025. The sharp decline reinforces the prevailing bearish outlook and suggests that sellers remain firmly in control of market direction.
The breakdown to a multi-month low is a notable technical development, as it confirms the continuation of the broader downtrend and highlights the weakness in market sentiment. The inability of silver to establish a meaningful recovery indicates that bearish momentum remains dominant.
Momentum indicators are also supporting the negative outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved deeper into bearish territory, reflecting persistent selling pressure and a lack of bullish participation. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in negative territory and continues to trend lower, signaling that downside momentum is still strengthening.
The alignment of both RSI and MACD in bearish territory suggests that the current decline may not be over and that further weakness could emerge in the near term. Unless a significant recovery develops, the path of least resistance appears to remain to the downside.
From a technical perspective, the next key support level is located near 52.80. This area represents the next major downside target and could become a critical zone where buyers attempt to stabilize the market. However, if bearish momentum continues to accelerate, silver may remain vulnerable to testing this support level in the coming sessions.
Resistance Levels: 61.60, 65.30
Support Levels:52.80, 49.00
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