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Published: 23 June 2026,08:09
Daily Market Analysis New
*The Australian Dollar continues to underperform against major peers after the RBA held rates steady at 4.35%, reducing near-term expectations for further policy tightening and limiting yield support for the currency.
*Attention now turns to Thursday’s Labour Force report. Strong employment growth and stable unemployment could reinforce the RBA’s restrictive stance and support the AUD
*The AUD’s near-term direction will largely depend on labour market resilience, commodity price movements, U.S. monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical developments.
The Australian Dollar has traded in a relatively weak position against most G10 peers in recent weeks. This softer stance reflects the RBA’s decision to pause its tightening cycle, alongside broader global risk dynamics and commodity price volatility. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on June 16, marking the first hold after three 25 basis point hikes earlier in 2026. This pause has reduced near-term yield support for the AUD while markets assess the lagged impact of prior tightening on inflation and growth.
With the RBA now on hold, attention has shifted to domestic economic indicators for clues on the next policy move. Thursday’s May 2026 Labour Force report will be a key release. Recent data showed softening conditions, with employment declining in prior months and the unemployment rate edging higher toward 4.5%. A stronger-than-expected jobs print — with solid employment growth and stable or lower unemployment — could reinforce the RBA’s current restrictive settings and provide support to the AUD. Conversely, further weakness might fuel expectations of future rate cuts, adding downside pressure on the currency.
The Near-term outlook for the AUD remains data-dependent and sensitive to global factors, including commodity prices, U.S. policy developments, and geopolitical headlines. The Thursday labour data could act as a near-term catalyst, potentially shaping expectations ahead of the RBA’s next meeting in August. While the pause has removed immediate hawkish momentum, resilient jobs data may help stabilise the currency. Traders should monitor Thursday’s release closely, as it will offer important guidance on labour market resilience and the RBA’s future path.
Technical Analysis
AUD/NZD continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel and is currently approaching its highest level since late May, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook for the pair. The series of higher highs and higher lows highlights sustained buying interest and suggests that the broader uptrend remains firmly intact.
The pair’s ability to remain within its rising channel indicates that bullish momentum continues to dominate market sentiment. As long as this structure remains intact, AUD/NZD is likely to maintain its upward trajectory and continue testing higher price levels.
However, despite the constructive technical setup, the pair is approaching a significant resistance zone near its recent peak. This area could attract increased profit-taking activity and selling pressure, particularly from traders looking to lock in gains following the recent rally. As a result, AUD/NZD may encounter a period of consolidation or a technical retracement as it approaches this resistance region.
From a trend perspective, the key level to monitor is the support zone around 1.2150. This level serves as an important benchmark for the current bullish structure. A sustained hold above 1.2150 would indicate that buyers remain in control and that any pullback is likely to be corrective in nature rather than the start of a broader trend reversal. Conversely, a decisive break below 1.2150 could signal a weakening of bullish momentum and increase the risk of a deeper correction within the ascending channel.
Resistance Levels:1.2302, 1.236
Support Levels: 1.2136, 1.2053
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