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Published: 23 June 2026,07:39
Daily Market Analysis New
*Oil prices remain primarily driven by developments in US-Iran diplomacy and expectations for future global crude supply.
*Crude initially fell more than 3% on peace talk optimism before stabilizing and posting a modest rebound.
*The US 60-day sanctions waiver for Iran has increased expectations that additional Iranian oil could return to global markets.
Oil markets continue to be driven primarily by developments surrounding US-Iran diplomacy and the future of global crude supply. After suffering a sharp decline of more than 3% following the announcement of progress in peace talks, crude prices have stabilized and staged a modest rebound as investors reassess the likelihood and timing of increased Iranian exports returning to the market. Brent crude has recovered toward the upper US$70s while WTI has traded around the mid-US$70 range, reflecting cautious optimism rather than renewed bullishness.
The most significant recent development has been the United States granting Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver that permits certain oil production, sales, and exports while negotiations continue. Combined with reports of improving tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and indications that Gulf producers are preparing to normalize shipments, these developments have substantially reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported oil prices. However, market participants remain skeptical that a full normalization of supply will occur immediately, citing longstanding distrust between Washington and Tehran, lingering security concerns, and uncertainty over whether agreements reached in Switzerland will ultimately be implemented.
Further supporting prices in the short term are signs that US strategic petroleum reserves remain at historically low levels and that physical supply conditions are still relatively tight. At the same time, analysts note that a successful peace agreement could eventually release significant volumes of Iranian crude back into global markets, potentially creating a supply surplus if demand growth remains subdued, particularly in China. As a result, while oil prices may experience intermittent rebounds due to uncertainty surrounding negotiations and shipping disruptions, the broader fundamental outlook has shifted toward a more bearish medium-term stance if diplomatic progress continues and supply normalizes.
Technical Analysis
Crude Oil, H4:
Crude oil remains in a strong bearish trend with prices continuing to post lower highs and lower lows after breaking below several key support levels over recent weeks. The latest decline has pushed prices back toward the critical 73.15 support area, keeping downside risks firmly in focus.Recent price action shows that the rebound from the June low failed to gain meaningful traction, with buyers unable to reclaim the 78.50 resistance zone. The subsequent rejection has driven prices back toward support, suggesting that sellers remain in control and that the recent bounce was merely corrective within the broader downtrend.
Momentum indicators continue to reflect a bearish bias. RSI has slipped back toward 33, hovering just above oversold territory and indicating weak buying interest. Meanwhile, MACD remains below the zero line, although the bearish momentum has moderated somewhat as the histogram flattens. The MACD and signal lines are attempting to stabilize, but no convincing bullish crossover has emerged to suggest a trend reversal.
Overall, the short-term outlook remains bearish as crude oil continues to trade near cycle lows and below all major resistance levels. While oversold conditions could trigger intermittent rebounds, the broader trend remains negative unless buyers can reclaim the 78.50 resistance zone, leaving the market vulnerable to another leg lower toward 70.70.
Resistance Levels: 73.15, 78.50
Support Levels: 64.55, 60.00
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