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Published: 9 June 2026,08:00
Daily Market Analysis New
*Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point increase from the European Central Bank, which would lift the deposit rate from 2.00% to 2.25%.
*A rate hike accompanied by signals of further tightening would likely support the Euro. Investors are particularly focused on whether the ECB hints at another potential hike later this year to combat inflation risks.
*The Euro carries a cautiously bullish bias ahead of the decision, with EUR/USD potentially targeting 1.17–1.18 if the ECB maintains a hawkish stance.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Markets are pricing in a near-certain 25 basis point rate hike, which would lift the key deposit facility rate from 2.00% to 2.25%. This move would mark the ECB’s first rate increase in several years, reflecting a shift from the previous easing cycle amid renewed inflationary pressures driven by geopolitical energy shocks.
The anticipated hike stems primarily from concerns over persistent inflation, particularly from elevated oil prices linked to Middle East uncertainties. While the Eurozone economy shows signs of moderation, policymakers appear focused on preventing second-round effects from energy costs feeding into broader price dynamics. Economists widely expect this initial tightening step, with a roughly 50% probability of a follow-up hike in September.
A 25 bps increase, especially if accompanied by hawkish forward guidance, is likely to provide short-term support for the Euro. The single currency has traded recently around 1.15–1.16 against the U.S. Dollar. Higher Eurozone yields relative to peers could attract capital inflows and bolster EUR/USD, though the magnitude will depend on the ECB’s communication regarding the pace of further tightening and the economic outlook.
Near-term outlook for the Euro is cautiously positive heading into the decision but remains data-dependent. A confirmed hike with signals of measured further tightening could drive EUR strength toward 1.17–1.18. However, any dovish surprises—such as emphasis on economic risks or limited additional hikes—may temper gains. Broader factors including U.S. economic data, oil price movements, and geopolitical developments will continue to influence sentiment. Volatility is expected to rise around the announcement.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD remains entrenched within a broader downtrend, recently declining to a fresh two-month low near the 1.1500 level. The continued formation of lower highs and lower lows reflects persistent selling pressure and confirms that the bearish market structure remains intact.
Despite the prevailing downtrend, recent price action suggests that downside momentum may be beginning to stabilize. The pair has entered a consolidation phase around current levels, indicating that sellers are losing some momentum after the recent decline. Such periods of consolidation often precede a corrective rebound, particularly when accompanied by improving momentum indicators.
The technical outlook for a short-term recovery is supported by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which is forming a higher-low pattern despite the pair trading near recent lows. This positive divergence suggests that bearish momentum is gradually weakening. In addition, the MACD is showing signs of forming a bullish crossover at lower levels, a development that could signal the beginning of a technical rebound.
Resistance Levels:1.1634, 1.1770
Support Levels: 1.1452, 1.1288
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