Published: 2 December 2025,05:45
Chart The Market
EURUSD, H4:
The EURUSD pair faces a critical technical test following an unconvincing breakout above the significant 1.6210 resistance level. While the initial breach had reinforced the near-term bullish trajectory, the subsequent failure to sustain momentum above this barrier raises the substantial risk of a false breakout—a classic bearish reversal signal.
The integrity of the bullish structure now hinges on the pair’s ability to reclaim and hold above the 1.6210 level in subsequent sessions. Failure to achieve this would confirm the false breakout scenario, invalidating the recent bullish signal and indicating a high probability of a bearish trend reversal.
Momentum indicators are increasingly aligning with this cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), while elevated near overbought territory, suggests bullish exhaustion. More notably, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has generated a bearish death cross at elevated levels, a configuration that often precedes a shift from an uptrend to a corrective phase.
Resistance Levels: 1.1620, 1.1705
Support Levels:1.1540, 1.1450
USDJPY, H4
The USDJPY pair has undergone a decisive shift in market structure, transitioning from a prior pattern of higher highs and higher lows to trading firmly within a defined downtrend channel. This bearish reversal was confirmed by the decisive breach of the pair’s long-term uptrend support line—a critical technical development that signals the prior bullish cycle has likely concluded.
The establishment of a lower high at the 2025 peak of 157.88, followed by a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows, illustrates a sustained shift in momentum favoring sellers. The breakdown of the long-term trendline, which had provided dynamic support for the preceding advance, validates this reversal and provides a structural basis for further downside.
Momentum indicators corroborate the sustained bearish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains suppressed below its 50 mid-line, reflecting persistent selling pressure rather than a temporary correction. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds below its zero line and continues to trend lower, indicating bearish momentum is both present and accelerating.
Resistance Levels: 156.90, 158.15
Support Levels: 154.30, 152.80
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